Blueprint for 2012

I approach the blueprint with a bit more wiggle room given that there are just certain players who are so interchangeable on the one hand and because it is nice to provide different accounts based on certain expected decisions to be made by the Twins.

To start, let's look at the 2012 payroll as provided by the Twins Centric crew:

C - Joe Mauer $23 million
1B - Justin Morneau $14 million
2B - Alexi Casilla (arb.) $2.5 million
3B - Danny Valencia $0.5 million
SS -
LF - Ben Revere $ 0.5 million
CF - Denard Span $3.0 million
RF -
DH -
4th OF -
CIF - Luke Hughes $0.5 million
MIF - Tsuyoshi Nishioka $ 3.0 million
C - Drew Butera $0.5 million

SP - Carl Pavano $ 8.5 million
SP - Francisco Liriano $ 6.0 million
SP - Scott Baker $6.5 million
SP -
SP - Nick Blackburn $4.75 million
Cl -
SU - Glen Perkins $1.8 million
MD - Brian Duensing $0.5 million
MD -
MD - Alex Burnett $0.5 million
MD - Jose Mijares $0.7 million
Long - Anthony Swarzak $0.5 million

TOTAL: $77.25 million

I want absolutely nothing to do with Drew Butera, Alex Burnett, and Jose Mijares. That's three 40-man roster spots to save to go with $1.7 million. So, we are left with a decision about Nishioka (I want him playing every day in AAA). We are left with $75.55 million and holes at SS, MIF, RF, DH, 4thOF, Backup C, SP, Cl, and 3 bullpen spots. Add Trevor Plouffe for $500K to serve as a super utility player in the middle infield and corner outfield. We are at $76.05 million.

We will assume $35 million, then $30 million, then $25 million to work with. And here is the entire list of players that I deem interchangeable to fit in depending on the situation (Joe Nathan is the only Twins FA I am considering keeping around):

C - Ryan Doumit (2 years, 9 million, 4-5), Chris Ianetta (2 years, $8.5 million, 3.5-5), Ryan Hannigan (2 years, $3.3 million, 1.2-2.1), Kelly Shoppach ($2 million), Rod Barajas ($3 million)
SS - Clint Barmes (2 years, $8 million, 3-5), Jamey Carroll ($2 million), Edgar Renteria ($1 million),
RF - David DeJesus ($5.5 million), Magglio Ordonez ($2.5 million), Laynce Nix ($1.5 million), Jonny Gomes ($1.25 million), Nate McLouth ($750K), Marcus Thames ($750K)
DH - Derrek Lee (and 1B) ($5 million and incentives), Vladimir Guerrero ($5 million), Hideki Matsui ($4 million), Jorge Posada ($4 million)
4thOF - any of the above RF and Johnny Damon ($4 million), Andruw Jones ($2 million)
SP - Kevin Slowey ($3.3 million), Brandon Webb (minor league deal), Scott Kazmir (minor league deal), Scott Diamond ($450K)
CL - Joe Nathan (2 years, $14 million-7-7), (let Glen Perkins have it), Jonathan Broxton ($4 million plus incentives), Octavio Dotel ($4 million)
MD--the above, LaTroy Hawkins ($2 million), Todd Coffey ($2.1 million), Michael Wuertz ($1 million), Anthony Slama ($450K), Kyle Waldrop ($450K), Carlos Gutierrez ($450K), Lester Oliveros ($475k),

One way to look at the roster is to project which positions will need to be filled for more than one year given that there is no clear replacement in Rochester or New Britain to step in the lineup in 2013. With the likes of Joe Benson, Chris Parmelee, Rene Tosoni, Brian Dozier, Chris Herrmann, Yangervis Solarte, Liam Hendriks, David Bromberg, Cole DeVries, hopefully Alex Wimmers and Kyle Gibson, and the Carlos Gutierrez, Anthony Slama, Kyle Waldrop, Deolis Guerra, and Andrew Albers, however, it isn't clear that a youth movement is out of the question for 2013.

That said, if $35 million is available, aggressively pursuing Doumit and Barmes would be a wise decision. That's $7 million combined and the backup C and starting SS positions filled with two RH bats. This allows the signing of LH David DeJesus, who provides above average defense and should not play against LH pitchers. With that, either Jonny Gomes or Marcus Thames would provide solid platoon options. Pencil in the higher figure ($1.25) here. Now we are at $21.25 million left. I fill out the roster with a DH who can also play 1B, and that is Derrek Lee with a $5 million plus incentives deal. $16 million left. Add Plouffe to serve as utility player (500K)--$15.5 left.

Say bye to Kevin Slowey (in this scenario only) and sign Joe Nathan to a 2 year, $15 million deal at $7.5 each year (in this scenario only).

I sign both Brandon Webb and Scott Kazmir to minor-league deals and have them compete in spring with Scott Diamond for a spot in the rotation. Diamond was very unlucky last year, and appears to be an adequate bottom of the rotation guy. I like taking cheap risks on Webb and Kazmir, two guys who when healthy were very good. Let's say Diamond wins at $0.45 million. That's $7.55 million left for three bullpen spots. I like Slama, Gutierrez, Waldrop and Oliveros as backup plans in this $110 million scenario, so I sign Octavio Dotel (or if not available, Jonathan Broxton) for $4 million, LaTroy Hawkins for $2 million, and Michael Wuertz for $1 million, leaving me at around $109.45 million.


C - Joe Mauer $23 million
1B - Justin Morneau $14 million
2B - Alexi Casilla (arb.) $2.5 million
3B - Danny Valencia $0.5 million
SS - Clint Barmes $3 million
LF - Ben Revere $ 0.5 million
CF - Denard Span $3.0 million
RF - David DeJesus $5.5 million
DH - Derrek Lee $5 million
4th OF - Jonny Gomes or Marcus Thames $1.25 million
CIF - Luke Hughes $0.5 million
MIF - Tsuyoshi Nishioka $ 3.0 million (starts in AAA, playing every day with Brian Dozier), Trevor Plouffe $0.5 million
C - Ryan Doumit $4 million

SP - Carl Pavano $ 8.5 million
SP - Francisco Liriano $ 6.0 million
SP - Scott Baker $6.5 million
SP - Scott Diamond $0.5 million
SP - Nick Blackburn $4.75 million
Cl - Joe Nathan $7.5 million
SU - Glen Perkins $1.8 million
MD - Brian Duensing $0.5 million
MD - Octavio Dotel $4 million (or Jonathan Broxton $4 million plus incentives)
MD - Alex Burnett $0.5 million LaTroy Hawkins $2 million
MD - Jose Mijares $0.7 million Michael Wuertz $1 million
Long - Anthony Swarzak $0.5 million


Next is the $30 million scenario. Starting with the roster at $110 million, I make the following alterations:


C - Joe Mauer $23 million
1B - Justin Morneau $14 million
2B - Alexi Casilla (arb.) $2.5 million
3B - Danny Valencia $0.5 million
SS - Clint Barmes $3 million Jamey Carroll $2 million (-1 million)
LF - Ben Revere $ 0.5 million
CF - Denard Span $3.0 million
RF - David DeJesus $5.5 million
DH - Derrek Lee $5 million
4th OF - Jonny Gomes or Marcus Thames $1.25 million Andruw Jones $2 million (-0.25 million)
CIF - Luke Hughes $0.5 million
MIF - Tsuyoshi Nishioka $ 3.0 million (starts in AAA, playing every day with Brian Dozier), Trevor Plouffe $0.5 million
C - Ryan Doumit $4 million Kelly Shoppach $2 million (-2.25 million)

SP - Carl Pavano $ 8.5 million
SP - Francisco Liriano $ 6.0 million
SP - Scott Baker $6.5 million
SP - Scott Diamond $0.5 million Kevin Slowey $3.5 million (+$0.75 million)
SP - Nick Blackburn $4.75 million
Cl - Joe Nathan $7.5 million Glen Perkins (likely) $1.8 million (-$6.75 million)
SU - Glen Perkins $1.8 million Octavio Dotel $4 million
MD - Brian Duensing $0.5 million
MD - Octavio Dotel $4 million (or Jonathan Broxton $4 million plus incentives (-$2.75 million)
MD -  LaTroy Hawkins $2 million Anthony Slama $0.45 million (-$4.30 million)
MD - Michael Wuertz $1 million Kyle Waldrop $0.45 mill (-$4.85 million)
Long - Anthony Swarzak $0.5 million

And finally at the lowest rate . . . starting with that first $110 million payroll again:


C - Joe Mauer $23 million
1B - Justin Morneau $14 million
2B - Alexi Casilla (arb.) $2.5 million
3B - Danny Valencia $0.5 million
SS - Clint Barmes $3 million Jamey Carroll $2 million or Edgar Renteria $1 million (-$1 million or -$2 million)
LF - Ben Revere $ 0.5 million
CF - Denard Span $3.0 million
RF - David DeJesus $5.5 million Magglio Ordonez $2 million (-$4.5 or -$5.5 million)
DH - Derrek Lee $5 million
4th OF - Jonny Gomes or Marcus Thames $1.25 million Laynce Nix $1.5 million (-$4.25 million or -$5.25 million)
CIF - Luke Hughes $0.5 million
MIF - Tsuyoshi Nishioka $ 3.0 million (starts in AAA, playing every day with Brian Dozier), Trevor Plouffe $0.5 million
C - Ryan Doumit $4 million Kelly Shoppach $2 million (-$6.25 or -$7.25)

SP - Carl Pavano $ 8.5 million
SP - Francisco Liriano $ 6.0 million
SP - Scott Baker $6.5 million
SP - Scott Diamond $0.5 million Kevin Slowey $3.5 million (-$3.25 or -$4.25)
SP - Nick Blackburn $4.75 million
Cl - Joe Nathan $7.5 million Glen Perkins $1.8 million (-$10.75 or -$11.75)
SU - Glen Perkins $1.8 million Octavio Dotel $4 million
MD - Brian Duensing $0.5 million
MD - Octavio Dotel $4 million (or Jonathan Broxton $4 million plus incentives
MD - LaTroy Hawkins $2 million
MD - Michael Wuertz $1 million Todd Coffey $2.1 million (-$9.65 million or -$10.65 million)
Long - Anthony Swarzak $0.5 million

I will present the three variations in the next post, but I wanted to show the process. It is effective to start spending at the highest level and then work down.

(Edited to fix the order that these three are presented in)