7. Liam Hendriks
7 2/3 IP, 5.87 ERA, 0.78 WHIP, 8/0 K/BB. His last start was a rough one and it will be very interesting to see if his success has been overhyped. K/BB rate is not overhyped, though. 22.
8. Joe Benson
.385/.442/.615. A strong start with one homer and a 7/4 K/BB ratio. The strikeout numbers are going to be the big thing to watch this year. 3 steals already. 23.
11. David Bromberg
10 IP, 2.70 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 1/2 K/BB. Given up some hits, but they haven't hurt him too much. Will need to strike more people out. Will end the season at AAA. 23 1/2.
14. Chris Parmelee
.357/.372/.548. It is crucial that Parmelee continue his development. Last year his power numbers dropped, but his average went up significantly. Let's see if he can get it together this year. One homer so far. 23.
33. Steve Singleton
.257/.297/.429. The biggest victim of the Twins strange behavior with their middle infielders. Has no business not being at Rochester, and should be in consideration for the Twins this season if this middle infield situation keeps getting worse. Will turn 26 this year.
39. Deolis Guerra
10 IP, 1.80 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 7/2 K/BB. Pleasant surprise to see him doing well early. Has fallen the past two years. Turned 22 (only!) on Sunday. Will end at AAA.
40. Bobby Lanigan
11 1/3 IP, 1.59 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 7/3 K/BB. Could jump a number of other pitchers above him this year. Soon turning 24.
42. Evan Bigley
.242/.265/.273. Rough start and a forgotten man in the deep Twins OF. Just turned 24.
44. Brett Jacobson
5 IP, 9.00 ERA, 1.60 WHIP, 5/3 K/BB. First appearance was very good and the next two were bad. 24 1/2.
Others doing very well early:
Batters: Yangervis Solarte (almost made my list), Danny Lehmann, Mark Dolenc (should have known), and Ray Chang.
Pitchers: Steve Hirschfeld, Cole DeVries, and Jake Stevens.
Monday, April 18, 2011
Prospect Watch: Fort Myers
1. Aaron Hicks
.273/.351/.364--The number one prospect is off to a so-so start. Still excellent plate discipline, but with only 2 extra base hits and an 0 for 2 showing on the basepaths, Hicks still has to show something more.
20. Kane Holbrooks
17 2/3 IP, 2.55 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 5/4 K/BB. I am a big fan of this guy and expect great things this year. He'll be 24 in a few months and I honestly think he could be vying for a Twins roster spot one year from now. It won't be as a starter though.
29. Dakota Watts
5 IP, 5.40 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 4/0 K/BB. Rough last two appearances, but Watts is the real deal. With Holbrooks, I think next year he could contend for a Twins 'pen spot. I like the heat he brings. At 23 1/2, he needs to maintain solid command this year to impress.
30. James Beresford
.368/.395/.400--One of several underappreciated Twins middle infield prospects (what is the deal with that?), he is a singles-hitter and will need to develop more power. A solid all-around player, the 22-year-old should progress one step a year from now on.
31. Anderson Hidalgo
.240/.296/.400--I think this 3B will become a 2B soon. One homer this year, the 22-year-old is a sleeper in the system who is facing a make or break year.
32. Tom Stuifbergen
9 IP, 10.00 ERA, 2.00 WHIP, 8/2 K/BB. His second start was really bad. I like the command a lot. He's 22, Dutch, and promising, but needs to shake off this rough beginning.
34. Bruce Pugh
5 1/3 IP, 0.00 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 8/1 K/BB. Closing for FTM right now, he has been very impressive. He will turn 23 in July and should be back up at New Britain by that time. If Gutierrez falters as the next closer, look for Pugh to be in the running in a few years.
35. Chris Herrmann
.342/.409/.526--A fantastic start for the versatile OF/C. At 23 1/2, if he can develop some pop and maintain plate discipline, he has a lot of promise.
36. Brian Dozier
.317/.408/.463--The Twins are high on Dozier, and maybe he is giving them good reason to be this season. He turns 24 soon and will not be at Fort Myers for very long.
46. Danny Rams
.313/.371/.500--striking out too much, but he showing at 22 1/2 that he is ready for AA pitching. The Twins catching situation will mean that he should get every opportunity.
Others doing very well:
Batters: Nate Hanson and Nicholas Romero.
Pitchers: Brad Stillings, Edgar Ibarra, and Matthew Tone.
New Britain will be next.
.273/.351/.364--The number one prospect is off to a so-so start. Still excellent plate discipline, but with only 2 extra base hits and an 0 for 2 showing on the basepaths, Hicks still has to show something more.
20. Kane Holbrooks
17 2/3 IP, 2.55 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 5/4 K/BB. I am a big fan of this guy and expect great things this year. He'll be 24 in a few months and I honestly think he could be vying for a Twins roster spot one year from now. It won't be as a starter though.
29. Dakota Watts
5 IP, 5.40 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 4/0 K/BB. Rough last two appearances, but Watts is the real deal. With Holbrooks, I think next year he could contend for a Twins 'pen spot. I like the heat he brings. At 23 1/2, he needs to maintain solid command this year to impress.
30. James Beresford
.368/.395/.400--One of several underappreciated Twins middle infield prospects (what is the deal with that?), he is a singles-hitter and will need to develop more power. A solid all-around player, the 22-year-old should progress one step a year from now on.
31. Anderson Hidalgo
.240/.296/.400--I think this 3B will become a 2B soon. One homer this year, the 22-year-old is a sleeper in the system who is facing a make or break year.
32. Tom Stuifbergen
9 IP, 10.00 ERA, 2.00 WHIP, 8/2 K/BB. His second start was really bad. I like the command a lot. He's 22, Dutch, and promising, but needs to shake off this rough beginning.
34. Bruce Pugh
5 1/3 IP, 0.00 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 8/1 K/BB. Closing for FTM right now, he has been very impressive. He will turn 23 in July and should be back up at New Britain by that time. If Gutierrez falters as the next closer, look for Pugh to be in the running in a few years.
35. Chris Herrmann
.342/.409/.526--A fantastic start for the versatile OF/C. At 23 1/2, if he can develop some pop and maintain plate discipline, he has a lot of promise.
36. Brian Dozier
.317/.408/.463--The Twins are high on Dozier, and maybe he is giving them good reason to be this season. He turns 24 soon and will not be at Fort Myers for very long.
46. Danny Rams
.313/.371/.500--striking out too much, but he showing at 22 1/2 that he is ready for AA pitching. The Twins catching situation will mean that he should get every opportunity.
Others doing very well:
Batters: Nate Hanson and Nicholas Romero.
Pitchers: Brad Stillings, Edgar Ibarra, and Matthew Tone.
New Britain will be next.
Prospect Watch: Beloit
BELOIT
10. Oswaldo Arcia
.353/.439/.618--It's like he hasn't missed a beat from his phenomenal season at ELZ last year. One homer and 6/9 K/BB rate so far. He turns 20 soon and maybe the Twins organization will relax their slightly-too-cautious approach and maybe he'll be in Fort Myers by July.
12. Adrian Salcedo
10 2/3 IP, 4.22 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 12/5 K/BB. Struck out 10 in his first start, but struggled in his second. Has given up two long balls. Also turning 20 soon. No need to rush him yet, but the ceiling is very high.
16. Manuel Soliman
5 IP, 0.00 ERA, 0.60 WHIP, 8/2 K/BB. In one start and one relief outing, he has been dominant. He turns 22 in August. I expect that he will be in Fort Myers at that time.
18. B.J. Hermsen
11 1/3 IP 1.59 ERA, 1.59 WHIP, 3/2 K/BB. Not overpowering, but effective. Has given up 16 hits, which means he would fit right in with the Twins right now. But he's only 21 1/2 and should expect a cautious approach from the Twins. Hopefully a mid-season move to Fort Myers as well for him.
21. Daniel Ortiz
.364/.436/.697--total beast to start the season. Two homers and more walks than strikeouts (a mere 3 in 37 plate appearances) is a great sign. At age 21 and ranking 21, he could be jumping over some of the OF prospects ahead of him this season.
37. Martire Garcia
6.0 IP, 2.84 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 8/6 K/BB. Walk happy in his first start (5), he has been better out of the bullpen. Just turned 21 and it will be a wait-and-see season for him. Left-handedness gives him an advantage over several others, and the Twins may be shuffling pitchers around between Rochester and the Show, so I would think Garcia ends at Fort Myers.
41. Lance Ray
.188/278/.313--has one homer, but is striking out like crazy so far. His 14 whiffs are over 1/3 of last year's total for the whole season. At 21 1/2, he will need to post an OPS above .800 to move up this year.
43. Andrei Lobanov
8 IP, 3.38 ERA, 1.75 WHIP, 11/2 K/BB. I am higher on this guy than most, but I like what he has done. Too many hits, but the Ks are impressive. 21 and climbing the ladder this year.
47. Michael Tonkin
5 1/3 IP, 5.06 ERA, 1.88 WHIP, 4/3 K/BB. 21 1/2, but needs to improve and get his ERA under 4.00 to advance.
48. Logan Darnell
11 IP, 4.09 ERA, 0.73 WHIP, 10/1 K/BB. First and second starts were wildly different. Good that his second start was the great one (8 shutout innings). At 22, I expect him to move up this year, perhaps two levels.
50. Daniel Santana
.222/.282/.389--He's 20 1/2 and there is no rush. Solid improvement this year will mean he starts at Fort Myers next year. K/BB ratio needs to improve dramatically (9/2 this year, after a 70/10 last year)
Others not on the list performing highly at Beloit:
Batters: Josmil Pinto (CATCHER!) and Gunner Glad.
Pitchers: Blayne Weller and Jose Gonzalez (I should have seen this coming).
Fort Myers will be next.
10. Oswaldo Arcia
.353/.439/.618--It's like he hasn't missed a beat from his phenomenal season at ELZ last year. One homer and 6/9 K/BB rate so far. He turns 20 soon and maybe the Twins organization will relax their slightly-too-cautious approach and maybe he'll be in Fort Myers by July.
12. Adrian Salcedo
10 2/3 IP, 4.22 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 12/5 K/BB. Struck out 10 in his first start, but struggled in his second. Has given up two long balls. Also turning 20 soon. No need to rush him yet, but the ceiling is very high.
16. Manuel Soliman
5 IP, 0.00 ERA, 0.60 WHIP, 8/2 K/BB. In one start and one relief outing, he has been dominant. He turns 22 in August. I expect that he will be in Fort Myers at that time.
18. B.J. Hermsen
11 1/3 IP 1.59 ERA, 1.59 WHIP, 3/2 K/BB. Not overpowering, but effective. Has given up 16 hits, which means he would fit right in with the Twins right now. But he's only 21 1/2 and should expect a cautious approach from the Twins. Hopefully a mid-season move to Fort Myers as well for him.
21. Daniel Ortiz
.364/.436/.697--total beast to start the season. Two homers and more walks than strikeouts (a mere 3 in 37 plate appearances) is a great sign. At age 21 and ranking 21, he could be jumping over some of the OF prospects ahead of him this season.
37. Martire Garcia
6.0 IP, 2.84 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 8/6 K/BB. Walk happy in his first start (5), he has been better out of the bullpen. Just turned 21 and it will be a wait-and-see season for him. Left-handedness gives him an advantage over several others, and the Twins may be shuffling pitchers around between Rochester and the Show, so I would think Garcia ends at Fort Myers.
41. Lance Ray
.188/278/.313--has one homer, but is striking out like crazy so far. His 14 whiffs are over 1/3 of last year's total for the whole season. At 21 1/2, he will need to post an OPS above .800 to move up this year.
43. Andrei Lobanov
8 IP, 3.38 ERA, 1.75 WHIP, 11/2 K/BB. I am higher on this guy than most, but I like what he has done. Too many hits, but the Ks are impressive. 21 and climbing the ladder this year.
47. Michael Tonkin
5 1/3 IP, 5.06 ERA, 1.88 WHIP, 4/3 K/BB. 21 1/2, but needs to improve and get his ERA under 4.00 to advance.
48. Logan Darnell
11 IP, 4.09 ERA, 0.73 WHIP, 10/1 K/BB. First and second starts were wildly different. Good that his second start was the great one (8 shutout innings). At 22, I expect him to move up this year, perhaps two levels.
50. Daniel Santana
.222/.282/.389--He's 20 1/2 and there is no rush. Solid improvement this year will mean he starts at Fort Myers next year. K/BB ratio needs to improve dramatically (9/2 this year, after a 70/10 last year)
Others not on the list performing highly at Beloit:
Batters: Josmil Pinto (CATCHER!) and Gunner Glad.
Pitchers: Blayne Weller and Jose Gonzalez (I should have seen this coming).
Fort Myers will be next.
Sunday, April 17, 2011
Things got worse before they got better
With Joe Mauer hurt, the offense only very slowly getting going, and two debacles from Capps and Nathan, these past few days were pretty miserable for Twins fans.
The Manager of the Year trotted out a ridiculous lineup headed by Matt Tolbert and Alexi Casilla but somehow the Twins won. I am convinced that Gardenhire somehow does not understand that where one bats in the lineup affects how many plate appearances one will get. All things being equal, a lineup should be stacked according to OBP. The first inning may be the only time your "leadoff" hitter actually leads off and your "cleanup" man may be leading off just as much throughout a game.
Brian Duensing came through with a solid outing. That kind of solid outing is becoming a bit more common for the Twins these days, so I am not all that concerned about this 5-10 start. The offense can only improve.
Speaking of, Steve Holm and Jason Repko had two hits apiece. Indeed. Sometimes a team will win games with people like that contributing in big ways. A Twins lineup without Span, Nishioka (or the projection of him), Mauer, and Morneau looks totally ridiculous on paper and I hope Gardenhire never chances this again when everyone is healthy.
I feel bad for Alexi Casilla. I always liked him and thought he deserved a final chance. The time is fading though, especially with what's developing down on the farm. But that is for the next post.
The Manager of the Year trotted out a ridiculous lineup headed by Matt Tolbert and Alexi Casilla but somehow the Twins won. I am convinced that Gardenhire somehow does not understand that where one bats in the lineup affects how many plate appearances one will get. All things being equal, a lineup should be stacked according to OBP. The first inning may be the only time your "leadoff" hitter actually leads off and your "cleanup" man may be leading off just as much throughout a game.
Brian Duensing came through with a solid outing. That kind of solid outing is becoming a bit more common for the Twins these days, so I am not all that concerned about this 5-10 start. The offense can only improve.
Speaking of, Steve Holm and Jason Repko had two hits apiece. Indeed. Sometimes a team will win games with people like that contributing in big ways. A Twins lineup without Span, Nishioka (or the projection of him), Mauer, and Morneau looks totally ridiculous on paper and I hope Gardenhire never chances this again when everyone is healthy.
I feel bad for Alexi Casilla. I always liked him and thought he deserved a final chance. The time is fading though, especially with what's developing down on the farm. But that is for the next post.
Tuesday, April 12, 2011
Team struggling early
The Twins have not gotten it together at all this year. The offense has been terrible. Michael Cuddyer is barely batting over .100 and joining him in the sub-.200 club are Delmon Young, Danny Valencia, Alexi Casilla, and Jim Thome. Denard Span leads the team with a .342 obp. The Twins have 3 home runs, 2 stolen bases and a bad injury to the guy (Nishioka) who could have competed for the SB team lead this year.
Meanwhile, the starting pitching aside from Nick Blackburn has been terrible, although maybe Carl Pavano's first start was merely an anomaly, given that his second start went well. Dusty Hughes and Jeff Manship have been predictably bad.
The good news is that, aside from one rough inning from Joe Nathan, the back end of the bullpen has been great, with only two earned runs given up in 16 1/3 innings pitched from Perkins, Mijaraes, Capps, and Nathan.
Meanwhile, the starting pitching aside from Nick Blackburn has been terrible, although maybe Carl Pavano's first start was merely an anomaly, given that his second start went well. Dusty Hughes and Jeff Manship have been predictably bad.
The good news is that, aside from one rough inning from Joe Nathan, the back end of the bullpen has been great, with only two earned runs given up in 16 1/3 innings pitched from Perkins, Mijaraes, Capps, and Nathan.
Wednesday, April 6, 2011
Twins rally to top Yankees 5-4
Stop the presses. After yet another bleak beginning, the Twins rallied behind the bats of Delmon Young and Joe Mauer (and scary Yankee relief pitching!) to move to 2-3 on the year. I know it is early, but 2-3 just looks and feels an awful lot better than 1-4.
Some notes:
Denard Span is off to a good start offensively. His re-emergence as an above average leadoff man is vital for the Twins season, especially since his spot in the lineup is so irreplaceable (even Mauer has Young as a replacement in the 3-spot).
The offense is still fairly anemic. Granted the "A" lineup has rarely been used, but the production from the 2-8 spots is a bit scary right now. If Cuddyer and Kubel really do repeat (or regress further) last year's performance, the Twins may be in some trouble. Thome's OPS is unlikely to top .900 this year. Morneau's productivity is in doubt and .900+ is also very uncertain for him. He was a beast for the first half of last year and carried the team at times.
Matt Capps looks good. That two inning outing should restore some confidence in the back end of the bullpen, especially given . . .
Joe Nathan had a Nathan-like close last night. He still is hitting even 92 mph, but he hit his spots last night. Perhaps the confidence boost is all he will need.
Tonight the Twins face Freddy Garcia. Mauer, Kubel, and Young have murdered Garcia in their careers. Thome draws a lot of walks off of him. Cuddyer has really struggled against him. Let us hope that Gardenhire will choose wisely here. Cuddyer's bat on the bench for a proper pinch-hitting opportunity late in the game is simply just a better idea than trotting him out there to face a RH pitcher who he has had a bad history with.
Tomorrow, minor league baseball starts!
Some notes:
Denard Span is off to a good start offensively. His re-emergence as an above average leadoff man is vital for the Twins season, especially since his spot in the lineup is so irreplaceable (even Mauer has Young as a replacement in the 3-spot).
The offense is still fairly anemic. Granted the "A" lineup has rarely been used, but the production from the 2-8 spots is a bit scary right now. If Cuddyer and Kubel really do repeat (or regress further) last year's performance, the Twins may be in some trouble. Thome's OPS is unlikely to top .900 this year. Morneau's productivity is in doubt and .900+ is also very uncertain for him. He was a beast for the first half of last year and carried the team at times.
Matt Capps looks good. That two inning outing should restore some confidence in the back end of the bullpen, especially given . . .
Joe Nathan had a Nathan-like close last night. He still is hitting even 92 mph, but he hit his spots last night. Perhaps the confidence boost is all he will need.
Tonight the Twins face Freddy Garcia. Mauer, Kubel, and Young have murdered Garcia in their careers. Thome draws a lot of walks off of him. Cuddyer has really struggled against him. Let us hope that Gardenhire will choose wisely here. Cuddyer's bat on the bench for a proper pinch-hitting opportunity late in the game is simply just a better idea than trotting him out there to face a RH pitcher who he has had a bad history with.
Tomorrow, minor league baseball starts!
Saturday, April 2, 2011
Blue Jays 13, Twins 3
Not a whole lot to say other than the Twins didn't appear to be ready for the season to start. Hopefully nerves were a factor in the defensive issues Nishioka had early.
Span had a nice game at the plate.
I know it is only one game into the season, but I said earlier that I didn't trust Manship and Hughes in that bullpen. And they each got pounded on opening day. 5 runs in 2 innings worked for the unsettling duo (who shouldn't be on the big league roster).
Span had a nice game at the plate.
I know it is only one game into the season, but I said earlier that I didn't trust Manship and Hughes in that bullpen. And they each got pounded on opening day. 5 runs in 2 innings worked for the unsettling duo (who shouldn't be on the big league roster).
Friday, April 1, 2011
More on Prospects
A quick analysis of the list shows the strengths of the system--outfield, middle relief, and back-end starting pitching. It might be helpful to provide a breakdown (of the top 25) based on projected MLB arrival (assuming--absurdly--that they all will make it). By "arrival" I mean more than a few short stints and a September call-up.
2011:
1. Nishioka
2. Gibson
3. Gutierrez
4. Waldrop
5. Slama
2012:
1. Revere
2. Wimmers
3. Benson
4. Bromberg
5. Parmelee
6. Tosoni
7. Holbrooks
2013:
1. Hicks
2. Morales
3. Hendriks
4. Salcedo
5. Soliman
6. Hermsen
7. Rosario
8. Ortiz
9. Dean
2014:
1. Sano
2. Arcia
3. Kepler-Rozycki
4. Goodrum
As you can see, things at the MLB level might look entirely different starting next season. The OF depth in the system could mean an OF of Revere-Span-Benson next year with Young at DH and Tosoni as the 4th OF (much more upside than Jason Repko). I would expect one or two of those players to be traded, however (Revere and Tosoni) first, so Michael Cuddyer might still be around next year. 2013 could potentially mean the arrival of Hicks and Morales, the two OF that I rank highest in the system. A Benson-Hicks-Morales OF is possible in 2013.
Gibson, Wimmers, and Hendriks all have 2-3 starter potential, and Bromberg might surprise as well. Salcedo and Soliman could turn out to the be the cream of the crop (2011 is a big year for both of them). Like the OF, I expect the rotation to look very different by 2013 (hopefully with Liriano at the top).
Things to look for in the 2011 Twins season
1. Tsuyoshi Nishioka filling the second spot in the batting order with a legitimate OBP. Joe Mauer probably should have been batting second for the past several seasons instead of the generally feeble batting middle infielders put in that spot in the past. I expect a high .375+ OBP this year from "Nishy."
2. The bullpen stepping up once again as always. A healthy Joe Nathan means that the back end of the bullpen is quite strong with the (strangely maligned) Matt Capps and Jose Mijares as primary setup men. It is also helpful to remember how effective Glen Perkins was out of the bullpen before becoming a starter. I do not really trust Jeff Manship or Dusty Hughes, quite frankly, and expect the Twins to have to replace both of them fairly early on in the season (Waldrop, Slama, Burnett, and Diamond being the likely candidates). Kevin Slowey in a new role will be an interesting thing to watch.
3. Jason Kubel and Michael Cuddyer in their last seasons as Twins. The outfield depth in the minors is impressive and it will likely be time to move on to the young talent in favor of two fairly overpriced players with decreasing defensive utility and a lack of offensive consistency. Cuddyer could stay around. I would have preferred trading Kubel in the offseason.
4. The official ace-dom of Francisco Liriano (and hopefully an extended commitment from the Twins).
5. Trading deep strengths for needs at the deadline. Potential trade candidates include Nick Blackburn, Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey, Glen Perkins, Matt Capps, Anthony Slama, Ben Revere, Rene Tosoni, Brandon Roberts, and Evan Bigley. Likely needs are another ace-like starter and a right-handed power bat.
6. Beating the Yankees in the playoffs.
3. Jason Kubel and Michael Cuddyer in their last seasons as Twins. The outfield depth in the minors is impressive and it will likely be time to move on to the young talent in favor of two fairly overpriced players with decreasing defensive utility and a lack of offensive consistency. Cuddyer could stay around. I would have preferred trading Kubel in the offseason.
4. The official ace-dom of Francisco Liriano (and hopefully an extended commitment from the Twins).
5. Trading deep strengths for needs at the deadline. Potential trade candidates include Nick Blackburn, Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey, Glen Perkins, Matt Capps, Anthony Slama, Ben Revere, Rene Tosoni, Brandon Roberts, and Evan Bigley. Likely needs are another ace-like starter and a right-handed power bat.
6. Beating the Yankees in the playoffs.
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