It looks like Josh Willingham is going to sign for 3 years and $21 million. This means that Michael Cuddyer will be going elsewhere and it means that the Twins will get compensated with two picks. Add in the likelihood that Jason Kubel goes elsewhere and the Twins will be getting three compensation picks. This should mean five picks in the first 55-65 picks taken, which is huge for replenishing the minor league system.
In other news: Jose Mijares was non-tendered, which is something that I like (though I would have preferred a trade). The Twins have Perkins and Duensing in the bullpen and have no need for a third lefty. I would assume that the emergence of Tyler Robertson in the second half of the season in New Britain might be a factor in this decision.
Wednesday, December 14, 2011
Wednesday, December 7, 2011
Capps, Slowey, and Cuddyer
I have waited awhile before posting about the Matt Capps signing. It still does not make a lot of sense to me, but the following seems clear:
1. The Twins wanted the cheapest "proven closer" out there. Many things about this are preposterous, but this means that they are paying about 1-1.5 million more than the other viable (and a few of them, better) relievers on the market, but none of those guys are "proven closers" (Dotel, Hawkins, Coffey).
2. The Twins are being very loyal. They love Matt Capps and he is a great guy. So they wanted him around for that reason.
3. The Twins don't care about having a bunch of draft picks in this draft. Consider the first two rounds of the 2012 draft. With the normal two picks, the one coming for Capps, the one coming for Kubel, and the two coming for Cuddyer, the Twins could have had 6 of the top 60-65 picks (depending on how big that supplemental round will be). I suspect that the Twins are going to end up with only three of them now. Maybe this is a financial decision.
4. The Twins are serious about the recent bullpen arms they have added (Gray, Maloney, Burton, Vasquez, etc.).
The trading of Kevin Slowey was inevitable after a *ridiculous* year last year. There is no reason whatsoever to have Nick Blackburn starting instead of Slowey. Slowey fell victim to a dumb contract given out of the blue to a 6th starter in Blackburn. The treatment from Souhan and Blyleven, etc., was appalling. What a disgrace. Souhan is a total joke on every level, and Blyleven needs to find a new job. I wish Kevin the best in Colorado.
Cuddyer will be a Twin next year. The market fell out and no one else wants him. They know that Cuddyer is due for an average year. It's unfortunate that Cuddyer is coming back, but I don't know if I trust the Twins to properly replace him anyway (Derrek Lee and Andruw Jones/Jonny Gomes on one year deals with option years). A three-year deal is a problem. I think that it should be clear now that players like Rene Tosoni, Chris Parmelee, Joe Benson, and even Ben Revere could be playing this year to show potential and to develop serious trade value.
Saturday, December 3, 2011
Bullpen
I have changed my mind about the path the Twins ought to take. I have been convinced by Seth Stohs here that Brad Lidge is a worthwhile pickup (instead of Dotel). I think the Twins should groom Gutierrez as the closer, and Robertson and Guerra as setup men in Rochester. I would like to see Alex Burnett start at Rochester and Jose Mijares to be traded (packaged with Slowey?).
The Twins bullpen would look like this, then:
Long: Swarzak
M: open
M: open
LOOGY: Duensing
SU LH: Perkins
SU RH: open
Cl: Lidge
The Twins bullpen would look like this, then:
Long: Swarzak
M: open
M: open
LOOGY: Duensing
SU LH: Perkins
SU RH: open
Cl: Lidge
Scared about rumors
There is a lot of talk about the Twins "madly" pursuing Cuddyer and "strong interest" in Capps. Cuddyer at 2 years, 22 million isn't terrible. Maybe even 2/24, but that is it. Capps should in no way, shape, or form be re-signed given that the Twins would get a pick (around 60-65) when he signs elsewhere. It makes absolutely no sense to think of Capps as anything, much less a 4+ million dollar closer!
Wednesday, November 30, 2011
Broxton signs with Royals
Jonathan Broxton is signing with the Royals for 1 year/$4 million plus incentives. The Twins really missed out on taking a chance on him and the price was right. I am guessing the Twins are looking in the direction of Brad Lidge and Frank Francisco, but I worry about paying for than $6 million for either one of them. Signing Octavio Dotel as a setup man with Perkins and throwing Carlos Gutierrez into the closer role is kinda where I am at right now. Unless they want to do something interesting and sign Rich Harden as the closer. Thinking outside of the box here is the way to go.
The Twins cannot sign Matt Capps, right? He would provide another pick for them if he signs somewhere else. Replenishing the bottom of the system is going to push people like Adrian Salcedo, Manuel Soliman, Madison Boer, Miguel Sano, Eddie Rosario, JaDamion Williams, Levi Michael, Nate Roberts, Michael Gonzales, Lance Ray, etc. up a bit quicker, and that would be a good thing (Fort Myers in July and August could be a really fun team to watch, as far as minor league baseball goes).
The Twins cannot sign Matt Capps, right? He would provide another pick for them if he signs somewhere else. Replenishing the bottom of the system is going to push people like Adrian Salcedo, Manuel Soliman, Madison Boer, Miguel Sano, Eddie Rosario, JaDamion Williams, Levi Michael, Nate Roberts, Michael Gonzales, Lance Ray, etc. up a bit quicker, and that would be a good thing (Fort Myers in July and August could be a really fun team to watch, as far as minor league baseball goes).
Monday, November 28, 2011
Twins notes
Tsuyoshi Nishioka is assumed by many to be the 2012 infield utility man, but I have to wonder if he and the Twins wouldn't be better served by starting the year at Rochester to play every day. And it isn't clear that he is anything but a backup shortstop in MLB right now. With Jamey Carroll's infield versatility, Alexi Casilla's middle infield ability, Luke Hughes' good right side defense and his ability to play third base, and Trevor Plouffe's ability to end a game at short if some infield disaster happens, I see Nishioka as a wasted roster spot right now. It's a spot that could go to a Pudge Rodriguez or a Jonny Gomes.
When will the Twins trade outfield depth for pitching needs? The list is massive: Denard Span, Ben Revere, Rene Tosoni, Joe Benson, Dustin Martin, Evan Bigley, Aaron Hicks, Oswaldo Arcia, Eddie Rosario (though hopefully he will be successfully converted to second base), Lance Ray, Nate Roberts, Danny Ortiz, Max Kepler, etc. (I may be forgetting a few other prospects). I am not saying that the Twins should trade the best of this bunch, but the depth is impressive, while the dearth of top of the order pitching prospects is alarming. Martin, Bigley, Roberts, and Ortiz are certainly viable trade candidates, in my view. Packaging two of them with a Kevin Slowey and Alex Burnett, might yield some very good returns.
I am terrified of the Twins attitude towards closers. I really hope that no more than $4-5 gets thrown towards Jonathan Broxton or Brad Lidge on one-year deals. Meanwhile, either train Carlos Gutierrez to close, or trade him. I still think the best idea would be to sign Dotel, move Perkins to the closer role and work from within to build a successful bullpen.
I wonder, given this:
When will the Twins trade outfield depth for pitching needs? The list is massive: Denard Span, Ben Revere, Rene Tosoni, Joe Benson, Dustin Martin, Evan Bigley, Aaron Hicks, Oswaldo Arcia, Eddie Rosario (though hopefully he will be successfully converted to second base), Lance Ray, Nate Roberts, Danny Ortiz, Max Kepler, etc. (I may be forgetting a few other prospects). I am not saying that the Twins should trade the best of this bunch, but the depth is impressive, while the dearth of top of the order pitching prospects is alarming. Martin, Bigley, Roberts, and Ortiz are certainly viable trade candidates, in my view. Packaging two of them with a Kevin Slowey and Alex Burnett, might yield some very good returns.
I am terrified of the Twins attitude towards closers. I really hope that no more than $4-5 gets thrown towards Jonathan Broxton or Brad Lidge on one-year deals. Meanwhile, either train Carlos Gutierrez to close, or trade him. I still think the best idea would be to sign Dotel, move Perkins to the closer role and work from within to build a successful bullpen.
I wonder, given this:
"Ben Lindbergh of Baseball Prospectus did some very interesting research about how rapidly teams move their prospects up the minor-league ladder, finding huge differences between the slowest-moving teams and fastest-moving teams. For position player prospects the Twins are by far MLB's slowest-moving organization, allowing hitters to accumulate an average of 2,600 plate appearances in the minors before making their big-league debuts.
Not only is the Twins' average of 2,600 pre-debut plate appearances about 200 more than the next-slowest Angels, it's 1,000 more than the fastest-moving team, the Mets. That means the average Twins hitter debuts with two more full seasons' worth of plate appearances than the average Mets hitter. We saw that exact dichotomy in action with Carlos Gomez, as the Mets rushed him to the majors at age 21 and the Twins then kept him there at age 22."
Why the Twins traded for Carlos Gomez and Delmon Young, considering how rushed those two players were through the minor leagues. Those two careers may have substantially different had they been given 1-2 more years to figure it out with less pressure in the minors.
Wednesday, November 23, 2011
Interesting development
The Twins will now get a supplemental pick (between the first and second round) if Matt Capps signs elsewhere even when the Twins do not offer arbitration. That is a major development and should put to rest absolutely all talk about re-signing and overpaying for a fully replaceable pitcher. The Twins will have their first round pick, two picks from the Cuddyer-walk (one in the first round ahead of the team that signs him, and one sandwich pick), one sandwich pick from the Kubel-walk, and one pick from Matt Capps leaving (bye bye). This will mean five picks in the top 60-65 total. This is worth letting Cuddyer, Kubel, and Capps all go while signing guys to replace them for cheaper and who may actually out-perform the trio (if the Twins were to add Octavio Dotel, Derrek Lee and either Andruw Jones or Jonny Gomes, I guarantee out-performance).
I have noticed strange things about the Twins blogosphere and falling back on signing replaceable players from within for no good reason. That Matt Capps is even being considered right now is alarming. He should not be back for anything over $2.5 million. Full stop. Wake up, people. He is a valuable pitcher at that price, yes.
But thankfully that talk must be over now that this new labor deal has been signed. The Ramos trade is still terrible, but it is now a bit less terrible.
Those five picks? How about three high-velocity pitchers, one catcher, and one infielder?
I have noticed strange things about the Twins blogosphere and falling back on signing replaceable players from within for no good reason. That Matt Capps is even being considered right now is alarming. He should not be back for anything over $2.5 million. Full stop. Wake up, people. He is a valuable pitcher at that price, yes.
But thankfully that talk must be over now that this new labor deal has been signed. The Ramos trade is still terrible, but it is now a bit less terrible.
Those five picks? How about three high-velocity pitchers, one catcher, and one infielder?
Tuesday, November 22, 2011
Roster update
Suggestions in blue:
C - Joe Mauer $23 million
1B - Justin Morneau $14 million
2B - Alexi Casilla (arb.) $2.5 million
3B - Danny Valencia $0.5 million
SS - Jamey Carroll $2.8 million
LF - Ben Revere $ 0.5 million
CF - Denard Span $3.0 million
RF - Andruw Jones $2.2 million
DH - Derrek Lee $5.3 million
4th OF - Trevor Plouffe $0.5 million
CIF - Luke Hughes $0.5 million
UTIL - Tsuyoshi Nishioka $ 3.0 million (starts in AAA, playing every day with Brian Dozier), Ryan Doumit $3 million
C - Ivan Rodriguez $1.5 million
SP - Carl Pavano $ 8.5 million
SP - Francisco Liriano $ 6.0 million
SP - Scott Baker $6.5 million
SP - Kevin Slowey $3.5 million
SP - Nick Blackburn $4.8 million
Cl - Glen Perkins (likely) $2 million
SU - Octavio Dotel $4 million
MD - Brian Duensing $0.5 million
MD - LaTroy Hawkins $2 million
MD - Anthony Slama $0.5 million
MD - Kyle Waldrop $0.5 million
Long - Anthony Swarzak $0.5 million
$101.6 million, I believe. This leaves room for trading Slowey for some lower minors live arms and signing a Mark Buehrle at $10 million, or trading some combo of Slowey, Burnett, Mijares, Evan Bigley, and Bruce Pugh for a viable $6-10 million pitcher.
C - Joe Mauer $23 million
1B - Justin Morneau $14 million
2B - Alexi Casilla (arb.) $2.5 million
3B - Danny Valencia $0.5 million
SS - Jamey Carroll $2.8 million
LF - Ben Revere $ 0.5 million
CF - Denard Span $3.0 million
RF - Andruw Jones $2.2 million
DH - Derrek Lee $5.3 million
4th OF - Trevor Plouffe $0.5 million
CIF - Luke Hughes $0.5 million
UTIL - Tsuyoshi Nishioka $ 3.0 million (starts in AAA, playing every day with Brian Dozier), Ryan Doumit $3 million
C - Ivan Rodriguez $1.5 million
SP - Carl Pavano $ 8.5 million
SP - Francisco Liriano $ 6.0 million
SP - Scott Baker $6.5 million
SP - Kevin Slowey $3.5 million
SP - Nick Blackburn $4.8 million
Cl - Glen Perkins (likely) $2 million
SU - Octavio Dotel $4 million
MD - Brian Duensing $0.5 million
MD - LaTroy Hawkins $2 million
MD - Anthony Slama $0.5 million
MD - Kyle Waldrop $0.5 million
Long - Anthony Swarzak $0.5 million
$101.6 million, I believe. This leaves room for trading Slowey for some lower minors live arms and signing a Mark Buehrle at $10 million, or trading some combo of Slowey, Burnett, Mijares, Evan Bigley, and Bruce Pugh for a viable $6-10 million pitcher.
Joe Nathan signs with Rangers
2 years, $14.5 million. Well, this coupled with the two players signed by the Twins, makes the off-season a bit clearer. The Twins are going to have to add two pitchers to the bullpen from outside the organization. I would sign Octavio Dotel and LaTroy Hawkins. Give Perkins the closer job and let Dotel be the backup plan if Perk falters in that role. Otherwise you have Hawkins in the 7th, Duensing and Dotel to matchup lefty-righty in the 8th, and Perkins in the 9th. I would round out the bullpen with Swarzak, Slama, and Waldrop after trying to shop Burnett and Mijares for live arms lower in the minors. Manship, Oliveros, Guerra, Robertson, Gutierrez, Gray, Dumatrait, and Maloney can be in Rochester.
Dotel and Hawkins would combine for about $5.5-6 million in salary, which is right around the figure already added by the Twins with the Carroll ($2.8 million for the first year) and Doumit ($3 million) signings. Even if Slowey stays and gets $4 million, the Twins should still have $10 million to spend.
Dotel and Hawkins would combine for about $5.5-6 million in salary, which is right around the figure already added by the Twins with the Carroll ($2.8 million for the first year) and Doumit ($3 million) signings. Even if Slowey stays and gets $4 million, the Twins should still have $10 million to spend.
Monday, November 21, 2011
Doumit splits revisited
So I made a mistake the other day in claiming that Doumit was better as a right-handed bat against lefties. It is true that the 2011 numbers indicate that, his career numbers are .798 against righties and .718 against lefties, and he certainly has more pop from the left side. See Parker Hageman's analysis
This means that the Twins still need one or two right-handed bats. The Phillies traded for Ty Wigginton, a player I would have liked the Twins to trade Kevin Slowey for (along with an exchange of prospects). This may mean that Michael Cuddyer is a bit less of a need for them. I am certain that the Rockies are now going to be very interested, and other teams like the Red Sox, Giants, Mets, Cubs, and Brewers (depending on where Prince Fielder ends up) will be interested as well. Some have speculated that Cuddyer's stock may plummet, but I think it is too early to tell.
I still like Andruw Jones, Derrek Lee, Magglio Ordonez, and Jonny Gomes as potential targets. You can add Cody Ross to that list, I suppose. Lee is still an option in my view because Doumit has not actually played much at first, and he was terrible there.
Finally, I am liking the idea of adding Pudge Rodriguez cheaply to be the second/third catcher (Butera needs to become a coach). I would seriously consider moving Nishioka to AAA Rochester to share middle infield duties there with Brian Dozier. With Carroll, Casilla, and Hughes, there is infield flexibility (and if catastrophe strikes mid-game, Plouffe could finish a game at short). Nishioka, to be successfull, needs to play every day. He can do that for a few months at Rochester and then come up as the first guy in the infield when an injury occurs.
This means that the Twins still need one or two right-handed bats. The Phillies traded for Ty Wigginton, a player I would have liked the Twins to trade Kevin Slowey for (along with an exchange of prospects). This may mean that Michael Cuddyer is a bit less of a need for them. I am certain that the Rockies are now going to be very interested, and other teams like the Red Sox, Giants, Mets, Cubs, and Brewers (depending on where Prince Fielder ends up) will be interested as well. Some have speculated that Cuddyer's stock may plummet, but I think it is too early to tell.
I still like Andruw Jones, Derrek Lee, Magglio Ordonez, and Jonny Gomes as potential targets. You can add Cody Ross to that list, I suppose. Lee is still an option in my view because Doumit has not actually played much at first, and he was terrible there.
Finally, I am liking the idea of adding Pudge Rodriguez cheaply to be the second/third catcher (Butera needs to become a coach). I would seriously consider moving Nishioka to AAA Rochester to share middle infield duties there with Brian Dozier. With Carroll, Casilla, and Hughes, there is infield flexibility (and if catastrophe strikes mid-game, Plouffe could finish a game at short). Nishioka, to be successfull, needs to play every day. He can do that for a few months at Rochester and then come up as the first guy in the infield when an injury occurs.
Friday, November 18, 2011
Twins sign Ryan Doumit
The Twins signed Ryan Doumit to a 1 year, $3 million deal plus incentives. This is actually on the cheap side, and makes up for any overpaying done to Jamey Carroll. Doumit will be 31 next April. He has primarily been a catcher, but has also spent decent time in RF and at 1B. He's a switch hitter who mauls lefties from the right side (2011 OPS .912 but is still good against righties from the left side (2011 OPS .802). Doumit is a cheap Cuddyer-lite but with the bonus of being able to catch against lefties. This means that Drew Butera would be relegated to only a late-inning defensive replacement, or he is gone altogether (much preferable, and in favor of Danny Lehmann, please).
I am surprised that these two deals have happened so soon, but it is a pleasant surprise. Now 1 or 2 more bats (one lefty like Nix or DeJesus, and one righty like Derrek Lee or Andruw Jones) and the team can turn it's attention to pitching. About $7 million has been spent on plugging two key holes in the roster.
**** In other news, for whatever reason, David Bromberg was sent to Rochester. Thankfully, he cleared waivers. I am a bit scared that Angel Morales or Tom Stuifbergen could be picked up in the Rule 5 draft, but I think they are likely safe. Oswaldo Arcia, Carlos Gutierrez, and Tyler Robertson were added to the 40-man. Good for Tyler, as he is the only non-obvious choice of the three. Jose Mijares, you are on notice . . . .
I am surprised that these two deals have happened so soon, but it is a pleasant surprise. Now 1 or 2 more bats (one lefty like Nix or DeJesus, and one righty like Derrek Lee or Andruw Jones) and the team can turn it's attention to pitching. About $7 million has been spent on plugging two key holes in the roster.
**** In other news, for whatever reason, David Bromberg was sent to Rochester. Thankfully, he cleared waivers. I am a bit scared that Angel Morales or Tom Stuifbergen could be picked up in the Rule 5 draft, but I think they are likely safe. Oswaldo Arcia, Carlos Gutierrez, and Tyler Robertson were added to the 40-man. Good for Tyler, as he is the only non-obvious choice of the three. Jose Mijares, you are on notice . . . .
Wednesday, November 16, 2011
Arizona Fall League Spotlight: Chris Herrmann
There is a lot of talk about the dearth of catching prospects in the Twins system. The Twins hit a gold mine with Joe Mauer, a once in a generation catching prospect. While it is true that the organization has had trouble developing many viable MLB catchers, you only need one or two to actually develop into good major league players. Chris Herrmann may be the next viable option for the Twins moving forward (perhaps with a Sept. callup).
Herrmann is doing extremely well in limited playing time in Arizona. His OPS is over 1.100 right now. For all of 2011:
.280/.392/.423 in 558 plate appearances. The .815 OPS is impressive across A/AA and the prospect-ridden AZL. His isolated discipline is a fantastic .112. He is above average defensively behind the plate and in the corner OF positions. Herrmann provides evidence that the Twins need to sign only a one-year stop gap player to fill the role as Mauer's platoon/rest counterpart. He hit 10 homers and stole 13 bases in 2011. If he was a RH hitter, I think he would be the Twins backup catcher going into 2012.
I will be dismayed if Drew Butera is on the Twins roster at all next year. He is essentially the worst hitter in all of MLB and his defense is not stellar and only truly stellar defense could justify taking up a roster spot as even a third catcher on the team (not even if September). If the Twins want a solid defensive third catcher, Danny Lehmann is right there in Rochester and there is no way he would suck at the plate as much as Drew Butera does. 2011 was embarrassing for many reasons, but the main one is that Butera got 254 plate appearances with a sub .450 OPS.
Herrmann is doing extremely well in limited playing time in Arizona. His OPS is over 1.100 right now. For all of 2011:
.280/.392/.423 in 558 plate appearances. The .815 OPS is impressive across A/AA and the prospect-ridden AZL. His isolated discipline is a fantastic .112. He is above average defensively behind the plate and in the corner OF positions. Herrmann provides evidence that the Twins need to sign only a one-year stop gap player to fill the role as Mauer's platoon/rest counterpart. He hit 10 homers and stole 13 bases in 2011. If he was a RH hitter, I think he would be the Twins backup catcher going into 2012.
I will be dismayed if Drew Butera is on the Twins roster at all next year. He is essentially the worst hitter in all of MLB and his defense is not stellar and only truly stellar defense could justify taking up a roster spot as even a third catcher on the team (not even if September). If the Twins want a solid defensive third catcher, Danny Lehmann is right there in Rochester and there is no way he would suck at the plate as much as Drew Butera does. 2011 was embarrassing for many reasons, but the main one is that Butera got 254 plate appearances with a sub .450 OPS.
Monday, November 14, 2011
Plouffe to the outfield
GM Terry Ryan indicated that Trevor Plouffe will be an outfielder this coming season. He had better start shagging fly balls now, because he needs actual experience playing in the outfield. It is very alarming that Plouffe was allowed to stay at shortstop throughout his entire minor league career when he is this bad. And worse at 2B, somehow. This organization just has significant trouble with middle infielders, period.
I can hope against hope that this means a Revere-Plouffe platoon in LF. That could be a remarkably productive platoon as Revere is bound to improve upon that .624 OPS against right-handed pitchers given his minor league track record, and Plouffe is already solid against lefties (.782).
This may mean that my hope that the Twins add 5 position-playing free agents is probably dashed. There would likely be no need to add a RH OF like Andruw Jones or Magglio Ordonez. David DeJesus and Laynce Nix are two candidates to fill RF from the left side of the plate. Plouffe could platoon there as well.
Aside from that, I am still perplexed by the desire to resign Cuddyer to what could be a $13/year contract. For $13 million, the Twins could likely add Derrek Lee, Ryan Doumit, Andruw Jones and Laynce Nix, or Lee, Kelly Shoppach, and David DeJesus. And doing so would eliminate the need to overpay Kubel (in years). Cuddyer is due for a sub-par year and Kubel is injury-prone.
One thing is clear already, though, and that is the addition of Carroll and the potential platoon situation for Plouffe means the Twins should improve their offensive production against lefties.
I can hope against hope that this means a Revere-Plouffe platoon in LF. That could be a remarkably productive platoon as Revere is bound to improve upon that .624 OPS against right-handed pitchers given his minor league track record, and Plouffe is already solid against lefties (.782).
This may mean that my hope that the Twins add 5 position-playing free agents is probably dashed. There would likely be no need to add a RH OF like Andruw Jones or Magglio Ordonez. David DeJesus and Laynce Nix are two candidates to fill RF from the left side of the plate. Plouffe could platoon there as well.
Aside from that, I am still perplexed by the desire to resign Cuddyer to what could be a $13/year contract. For $13 million, the Twins could likely add Derrek Lee, Ryan Doumit, Andruw Jones and Laynce Nix, or Lee, Kelly Shoppach, and David DeJesus. And doing so would eliminate the need to overpay Kubel (in years). Cuddyer is due for a sub-par year and Kubel is injury-prone.
One thing is clear already, though, and that is the addition of Carroll and the potential platoon situation for Plouffe means the Twins should improve their offensive production against lefties.
Sunday, November 13, 2011
On Jamey Carroll
Carroll was in the two cheaper versions of my blueprint, at $2 million for one year. This $3.5/$3.5 expected two-year deal is a bit pricey, but I suppose given the overpaying going on this off-season, the Twins wanted to make sure they got the guy they wanted. Switching out Barmes for Carroll meant that I had to change some things around to get more power on the roster, hence Andruw Jones, Kelly Shoppach, and Laynce Nix replacing the likes of DeJesus (Doumit more for monetary reasons). The Twins will certainly need to add some power after losing Thome, ensuring zero home runs from their starting shortstop, and probably losing Cuddyer and Kubel.
Saturday, November 12, 2011
And then the Twins sign Jamey Carroll
Which is a good thing. The price is quite high though. I am surprised by the size of the contract, but that seems to be the trend so far this offseason.
Blueprint cleaned up
I approach the blueprint with a bit more wiggle room given that there are just certain players who are so interchangeable on the one hand and because it is nice to provide different accounts based on certain expected decisions to be made by the Twins.
To start, let's look at the 2012 payroll as provided by the Twins Centric crew:
C - Joe Mauer $23 million
1B - Justin Morneau $14 million
2B - Alexi Casilla (arb.) $2.5 million
3B - Danny Valencia $0.5 million
SS -
LF - Ben Revere $ 0.5 million
CF - Denard Span $3.0 million
RF -
DH -
4th OF -
CIF - Luke Hughes $0.5 million
MIF - Tsuyoshi Nishioka $ 3.0 million
C -Drew Butera $0.5 million
SP - Carl Pavano $ 8.5 million
SP - Francisco Liriano $ 6.0 million
SP - Scott Baker $6.5 million
SP -
SP - Nick Blackburn $4.75 million
Cl -
SU - Glen Perkins $1.8 million
MD - Brian Duensing $0.5 million
MD -
MD -Alex Burnett $0.5 million
MD -Jose Mijares $0.7 million
Long - Anthony Swarzak $0.5 million
TOTAL: $77.25 million
I want absolutely nothing to do with Drew Butera, Alex Burnett, and Jose Mijares. That's three 40-man roster spots to save to go with $1.7 million. So, we are left with a decision about Nishioka (I want him playing every day in AAA). We are left with $75.55 million and holes at SS, MIF, RF, DH, 4thOF, Backup C, SP, Cl, and 3 bullpen spots. Add Trevor Plouffe for $500K to serve as a super utility player in the middle infield and corner outfield. We are at $76.05 million.
We will assume $35 million, then $30 million, then $25 million to work with.
C - Joe Mauer $23 million
1B - Justin Morneau $14 million
2B - Alexi Casilla (arb.) $2.5 million
3B - Danny Valencia $0.5 million
SS - Clint Barmes $3 million
LF - Ben Revere $ 0.5 million
CF - Denard Span $3.0 million
RF - David DeJesus $5.5 million
DH - Derrek Lee $5 million
4th OF - Jonny Gomes or Marcus Thames $1.25 million
CIF - Luke Hughes $0.5 million
MIF - Tsuyoshi Nishioka $ 3.0 million (starts in AAA, playing every day with Brian Dozier), Trevor Plouffe $0.5 million
C - Ryan Doumit $4 million
SP - Carl Pavano $ 8.5 million
SP - Francisco Liriano $ 6.0 million
SP - Scott Baker $6.5 million
SP - Scott Diamond $0.5 million
SP - Nick Blackburn $4.75 million
Cl - Joe Nathan $7.5 million
SU - Glen Perkins $1.8 million
MD - Brian Duensing $0.5 million
MD - Octavio Dotel $4 million (or Jonathan Broxton $4 million plus incentives)
MD - LaTroy Hawkins $2 million
MD - Michael Wuertz $1 million
Long - Anthony Swarzak $0.5 million
Next is the $30 million scenario. Starting with the roster at $110 million, I make the following alterations:
C - Joe Mauer $23 million
1B - Justin Morneau $14 million
2B - Alexi Casilla (arb.) $2.5 million
3B - Danny Valencia $0.5 million
SS - Jamey Carroll $2 million
LF - Ben Revere $ 0.5 million
CF - Denard Span $3.0 million
RF - David DeJesus $5.5 million
DH - Derrek Lee $5 million
4th OF - Andruw Jones $2 million
CIF - Luke Hughes $0.5 million
MIF - Tsuyoshi Nishioka $ 3.0 million (starts in AAA, playing every day with Brian Dozier), Trevor Plouffe $0.5 million
C - Kelly Shoppach $2 million
SP - Carl Pavano $ 8.5 million
SP - Francisco Liriano $ 6.0 million
SP - Scott Baker $6.5 million
SP - Kevin Slowey $3.5 million
SP - Nick Blackburn $4.75 million
Cl - Glen Perkins (likely) $1.8 million
SU - Octavio Dotel $4 million
MD - Brian Duensing $0.5 million
MD - Jonathan Broxton $4 million plus incentives
MD - Anthony Slama $0.45 million (-$4.80 million)
MD - Kyle Waldrop $0.45 mill (-S5.35 million)
Long - Anthony Swarzak $0.5 million
And finally at the lowest rate . . . starting with that first $110 million payroll again:
C - Joe Mauer $23 million
1B - Justin Morneau $14 million
2B - Alexi Casilla (arb.) $2.5 million
3B - Danny Valencia $0.5 million
SS - Jamey Carroll $2 million or Edgar Renteria $1 million
LF - Ben Revere $ 0.5 million
CF - Denard Span $3.0 million
RF - Magglio Ordonez $2 million
DH - Derrek Lee $5 million
4th OF - Laynce Nix $1.5 million
CIF - Luke Hughes $0.5 million
MIF - Tsuyoshi Nishioka $ 3.0 million (starts in AAA, playing every day with Brian Dozier), Trevor Plouffe $0.5 million
C - Kelly Shoppach $2 million
SP - Carl Pavano $ 8.5 million
SP - Francisco Liriano $ 6.0 million
SP - Scott Baker $6.5 million
SP - Kevin Slowey $3.5 million
SP - Nick Blackburn $4.75 million
Cl - Glen Perkins $1.8 million
SU - Octavio Dotel $4 million
MD - Brian Duensing $0.5 million
MD - Anthony Slama or Kyle Waldrop $0.45 million)
MD - LaTroy Hawkins $2 million
MD - Todd Coffey $2.1 million (-$10.15 million or -$10.65 million)
Long - Anthony Swarzak $0.5 million
(edited to fix the order of presentation)
To start, let's look at the 2012 payroll as provided by the Twins Centric crew:
C - Joe Mauer $23 million
1B - Justin Morneau $14 million
2B - Alexi Casilla (arb.) $2.5 million
3B - Danny Valencia $0.5 million
SS -
LF - Ben Revere $ 0.5 million
CF - Denard Span $3.0 million
RF -
DH -
4th OF -
CIF - Luke Hughes $0.5 million
MIF - Tsuyoshi Nishioka $ 3.0 million
C -
SP - Carl Pavano $ 8.5 million
SP - Francisco Liriano $ 6.0 million
SP - Scott Baker $6.5 million
SP -
SP - Nick Blackburn $4.75 million
Cl -
SU - Glen Perkins $1.8 million
MD - Brian Duensing $0.5 million
MD -
MD -
MD -
Long - Anthony Swarzak $0.5 million
TOTAL: $77.25 million
I want absolutely nothing to do with Drew Butera, Alex Burnett, and Jose Mijares. That's three 40-man roster spots to save to go with $1.7 million. So, we are left with a decision about Nishioka (I want him playing every day in AAA). We are left with $75.55 million and holes at SS, MIF, RF, DH, 4thOF, Backup C, SP, Cl, and 3 bullpen spots. Add Trevor Plouffe for $500K to serve as a super utility player in the middle infield and corner outfield. We are at $76.05 million.
We will assume $35 million, then $30 million, then $25 million to work with.
C - Joe Mauer $23 million
1B - Justin Morneau $14 million
2B - Alexi Casilla (arb.) $2.5 million
3B - Danny Valencia $0.5 million
SS - Clint Barmes $3 million
LF - Ben Revere $ 0.5 million
CF - Denard Span $3.0 million
RF - David DeJesus $5.5 million
DH - Derrek Lee $5 million
4th OF - Jonny Gomes or Marcus Thames $1.25 million
CIF - Luke Hughes $0.5 million
MIF - Tsuyoshi Nishioka $ 3.0 million (starts in AAA, playing every day with Brian Dozier), Trevor Plouffe $0.5 million
C - Ryan Doumit $4 million
SP - Carl Pavano $ 8.5 million
SP - Francisco Liriano $ 6.0 million
SP - Scott Baker $6.5 million
SP - Scott Diamond $0.5 million
SP - Nick Blackburn $4.75 million
Cl - Joe Nathan $7.5 million
SU - Glen Perkins $1.8 million
MD - Brian Duensing $0.5 million
MD - Octavio Dotel $4 million (or Jonathan Broxton $4 million plus incentives)
MD - LaTroy Hawkins $2 million
MD - Michael Wuertz $1 million
Long - Anthony Swarzak $0.5 million
Next is the $30 million scenario. Starting with the roster at $110 million, I make the following alterations:
C - Joe Mauer $23 million
1B - Justin Morneau $14 million
2B - Alexi Casilla (arb.) $2.5 million
3B - Danny Valencia $0.5 million
SS - Jamey Carroll $2 million
LF - Ben Revere $ 0.5 million
CF - Denard Span $3.0 million
RF - David DeJesus $5.5 million
DH - Derrek Lee $5 million
4th OF - Andruw Jones $2 million
CIF - Luke Hughes $0.5 million
MIF - Tsuyoshi Nishioka $ 3.0 million (starts in AAA, playing every day with Brian Dozier), Trevor Plouffe $0.5 million
C - Kelly Shoppach $2 million
SP - Carl Pavano $ 8.5 million
SP - Francisco Liriano $ 6.0 million
SP - Scott Baker $6.5 million
SP - Kevin Slowey $3.5 million
SP - Nick Blackburn $4.75 million
Cl - Glen Perkins (likely) $1.8 million
SU - Octavio Dotel $4 million
MD - Brian Duensing $0.5 million
MD - Jonathan Broxton $4 million plus incentives
MD - Anthony Slama $0.45 million (-$4.80 million)
MD - Kyle Waldrop $0.45 mill (-S5.35 million)
Long - Anthony Swarzak $0.5 million
And finally at the lowest rate . . . starting with that first $110 million payroll again:
C - Joe Mauer $23 million
1B - Justin Morneau $14 million
2B - Alexi Casilla (arb.) $2.5 million
3B - Danny Valencia $0.5 million
SS - Jamey Carroll $2 million or Edgar Renteria $1 million
LF - Ben Revere $ 0.5 million
CF - Denard Span $3.0 million
RF - Magglio Ordonez $2 million
DH - Derrek Lee $5 million
4th OF - Laynce Nix $1.5 million
CIF - Luke Hughes $0.5 million
MIF - Tsuyoshi Nishioka $ 3.0 million (starts in AAA, playing every day with Brian Dozier), Trevor Plouffe $0.5 million
C - Kelly Shoppach $2 million
SP - Carl Pavano $ 8.5 million
SP - Francisco Liriano $ 6.0 million
SP - Scott Baker $6.5 million
SP - Kevin Slowey $3.5 million
SP - Nick Blackburn $4.75 million
Cl - Glen Perkins $1.8 million
SU - Octavio Dotel $4 million
MD - Brian Duensing $0.5 million
MD - Anthony Slama or Kyle Waldrop $0.45 million)
MD - LaTroy Hawkins $2 million
MD - Todd Coffey $2.1 million (-$10.15 million or -$10.65 million)
Long - Anthony Swarzak $0.5 million
(edited to fix the order of presentation)
Blueprint for 2012
I approach the blueprint with a bit more wiggle room given that there are just certain players who are so interchangeable on the one hand and because it is nice to provide different accounts based on certain expected decisions to be made by the Twins.
To start, let's look at the 2012 payroll as provided by the Twins Centric crew:
C - Joe Mauer $23 million
1B - Justin Morneau $14 million
2B - Alexi Casilla (arb.) $2.5 million
3B - Danny Valencia $0.5 million
SS -
LF - Ben Revere $ 0.5 million
CF - Denard Span $3.0 million
RF -
DH -
4th OF -
CIF - Luke Hughes $0.5 million
MIF - Tsuyoshi Nishioka $ 3.0 million
C -Drew Butera $0.5 million
SP - Carl Pavano $ 8.5 million
SP - Francisco Liriano $ 6.0 million
SP - Scott Baker $6.5 million
SP -
SP - Nick Blackburn $4.75 million
Cl -
SU - Glen Perkins $1.8 million
MD - Brian Duensing $0.5 million
MD -
MD -Alex Burnett $0.5 million
MD -Jose Mijares $0.7 million
Long - Anthony Swarzak $0.5 million
TOTAL: $77.25 million
I want absolutely nothing to do with Drew Butera, Alex Burnett, and Jose Mijares. That's three 40-man roster spots to save to go with $1.7 million. So, we are left with a decision about Nishioka (I want him playing every day in AAA). We are left with $75.55 million and holes at SS, MIF, RF, DH, 4thOF, Backup C, SP, Cl, and 3 bullpen spots. Add Trevor Plouffe for $500K to serve as a super utility player in the middle infield and corner outfield. We are at $76.05 million.
We will assume $35 million, then $30 million, then $25 million to work with. And here is the entire list of players that I deem interchangeable to fit in depending on the situation (Joe Nathan is the only Twins FA I am considering keeping around):
C - Ryan Doumit (2 years, 9 million, 4-5), Chris Ianetta (2 years, $8.5 million, 3.5-5), Ryan Hannigan (2 years, $3.3 million, 1.2-2.1), Kelly Shoppach ($2 million),Rod Barajas ($3 million)
SS - Clint Barmes (2 years, $8 million, 3-5), Jamey Carroll ($2 million), Edgar Renteria ($1 million),
RF - David DeJesus ($5.5 million), Magglio Ordonez ($2.5 million), Laynce Nix ($1.5 million), Jonny Gomes ($1.25 million), Nate McLouth ($750K), Marcus Thames ($750K)
DH - Derrek Lee (and 1B) ($5 million and incentives), Vladimir Guerrero ($5 million), Hideki Matsui ($4 million), Jorge Posada ($4 million)
4thOF - any of the above RF and Johnny Damon ($4 million), Andruw Jones ($2 million)
SP - Kevin Slowey ($3.3 million), Brandon Webb (minor league deal), Scott Kazmir (minor league deal), Scott Diamond ($450K)
CL - Joe Nathan (2 years, $14 million-7-7), (let Glen Perkins have it), Jonathan Broxton ($4 million plus incentives), Octavio Dotel ($4 million)
MD--the above, LaTroy Hawkins ($2 million), Todd Coffey ($2.1 million), Michael Wuertz ($1 million), Anthony Slama ($450K), Kyle Waldrop ($450K), Carlos Gutierrez ($450K), Lester Oliveros ($475k),
One way to look at the roster is to project which positions will need to be filled for more than one year given that there is no clear replacement in Rochester or New Britain to step in the lineup in 2013. With the likes of Joe Benson, Chris Parmelee, Rene Tosoni, Brian Dozier, Chris Herrmann, Yangervis Solarte, Liam Hendriks, David Bromberg, Cole DeVries, hopefully Alex Wimmers and Kyle Gibson, and the Carlos Gutierrez, Anthony Slama, Kyle Waldrop, Deolis Guerra, and Andrew Albers, however, it isn't clear that a youth movement is out of the question for 2013.
That said, if $35 million is available, aggressively pursuing Doumit and Barmes would be a wise decision. That's $7 million combined and the backup C and starting SS positions filled with two RH bats. This allows the signing of LH David DeJesus, who provides above average defense and should not play against LH pitchers. With that, either Jonny Gomes or Marcus Thames would provide solid platoon options. Pencil in the higher figure ($1.25) here. Now we are at $21.25 million left. I fill out the roster with a DH who can also play 1B, and that is Derrek Lee with a $5 million plus incentives deal. $16 million left. Add Plouffe to serve as utility player (500K)--$15.5 left.
Say bye to Kevin Slowey (in this scenario only) and sign Joe Nathan to a 2 year, $15 million deal at $7.5 each year (in this scenario only).
I sign both Brandon Webb and Scott Kazmir to minor-league deals and have them compete in spring with Scott Diamond for a spot in the rotation. Diamond was very unlucky last year, and appears to be an adequate bottom of the rotation guy. I like taking cheap risks on Webb and Kazmir, two guys who when healthy were very good. Let's say Diamond wins at $0.45 million. That's $7.55 million left for three bullpen spots. I like Slama, Gutierrez, Waldrop and Oliveros as backup plans in this $110 million scenario, so I sign Octavio Dotel (or if not available, Jonathan Broxton) for $4 million, LaTroy Hawkins for $2 million, and Michael Wuertz for $1 million, leaving me at around $109.45 million.
C - Joe Mauer $23 million
1B - Justin Morneau $14 million
2B - Alexi Casilla (arb.) $2.5 million
3B - Danny Valencia $0.5 million
SS - Clint Barmes $3 million
LF - Ben Revere $ 0.5 million
CF - Denard Span $3.0 million
RF - David DeJesus $5.5 million
DH - Derrek Lee $5 million
4th OF - Jonny Gomes or Marcus Thames $1.25 million
CIF - Luke Hughes $0.5 million
MIF - Tsuyoshi Nishioka $ 3.0 million (starts in AAA, playing every day with Brian Dozier), Trevor Plouffe $0.5 million
C - Ryan Doumit $4 million
SP - Carl Pavano $ 8.5 million
SP - Francisco Liriano $ 6.0 million
SP - Scott Baker $6.5 million
SP - Scott Diamond $0.5 million
SP - Nick Blackburn $4.75 million
Cl - Joe Nathan $7.5 million
SU - Glen Perkins $1.8 million
MD - Brian Duensing $0.5 million
MD - Octavio Dotel $4 million (or Jonathan Broxton $4 million plus incentives)
MD -Alex Burnett $0.5 million LaTroy Hawkins $2 million
MD -Jose Mijares $0.7 million Michael Wuertz $1 million
Long - Anthony Swarzak $0.5 million
Next is the $30 million scenario. Starting with the roster at $110 million, I make the following alterations:
C - Joe Mauer $23 million
1B - Justin Morneau $14 million
2B - Alexi Casilla (arb.) $2.5 million
3B - Danny Valencia $0.5 million
SS -Clint Barmes $3 million Jamey Carroll $2 million (-1 million)
LF - Ben Revere $ 0.5 million
CF - Denard Span $3.0 million
RF - David DeJesus $5.5 million
DH - Derrek Lee $5 million
4th OF - Jonny Gomes or Marcus Thames $1.25 million Andruw Jones $2 million (-0.25 million)
CIF - Luke Hughes $0.5 million
MIF - Tsuyoshi Nishioka $ 3.0 million (starts in AAA, playing every day with Brian Dozier), Trevor Plouffe $0.5 million
C -Ryan Doumit $4 million Kelly Shoppach $2 million (-2.25 million)
SP - Carl Pavano $ 8.5 million
SP - Francisco Liriano $ 6.0 million
SP - Scott Baker $6.5 million
SP -Scott Diamond $0.5 million Kevin Slowey $3.5 million (+$0.75 million)
SP - Nick Blackburn $4.75 million
Cl -Joe Nathan $7.5 million Glen Perkins (likely) $1.8 million (-$6.75 million)
SU -Glen Perkins $1.8 million Octavio Dotel $4 million
MD - Brian Duensing $0.5 million
MD -Octavio Dotel $4 million (or Jonathan Broxton $4 million plus incentives (-$2.75 million)
MD -LaTroy Hawkins $2 million Anthony Slama $0.45 million (-$4.30 million)
MD -Michael Wuertz $1 million Kyle Waldrop $0.45 mill (-$4.85 million)
Long - Anthony Swarzak $0.5 million
And finally at the lowest rate . . . starting with that first $110 million payroll again:
C - Joe Mauer $23 million
1B - Justin Morneau $14 million
2B - Alexi Casilla (arb.) $2.5 million
3B - Danny Valencia $0.5 million
SS -Clint Barmes $3 million Jamey Carroll $2 million or Edgar Renteria $1 million (-$1 million or -$2 million)
LF - Ben Revere $ 0.5 million
CF - Denard Span $3.0 million
RF -David DeJesus $5.5 million Magglio Ordonez $2 million (-$4.5 or -$5.5 million)
DH - Derrek Lee $5 million
4th OF -Jonny Gomes or Marcus Thames $1.25 million Laynce Nix $1.5 million (-$4.25 million or -$5.25 million)
CIF - Luke Hughes $0.5 million
MIF - Tsuyoshi Nishioka $ 3.0 million (starts in AAA, playing every day with Brian Dozier), Trevor Plouffe $0.5 million
C -Ryan Doumit $4 million Kelly Shoppach $2 million (-$6.25 or -$7.25)
SP - Carl Pavano $ 8.5 million
SP - Francisco Liriano $ 6.0 million
SP - Scott Baker $6.5 million
SP -Scott Diamond $0.5 million Kevin Slowey $3.5 million (-$3.25 or -$4.25)
SP - Nick Blackburn $4.75 million
Cl -Joe Nathan $7.5 million Glen Perkins $1.8 million (-$10.75 or -$11.75)
SU -Glen Perkins $1.8 million Octavio Dotel $4 million
MD - Brian Duensing $0.5 million
MD -Octavio Dotel $4 million (or Jonathan Broxton $4 million plus incentives
MD - LaTroy Hawkins $2 million
MD -Michael Wuertz $1 million Todd Coffey $2.1 million (-$9.65 million or -$10.65 million)
Long - Anthony Swarzak $0.5 million
I will present the three variations in the next post, but I wanted to show the process. It is effective to start spending at the highest level and then work down.
(Edited to fix the order that these three are presented in)
To start, let's look at the 2012 payroll as provided by the Twins Centric crew:
C - Joe Mauer $23 million
1B - Justin Morneau $14 million
2B - Alexi Casilla (arb.) $2.5 million
3B - Danny Valencia $0.5 million
SS -
LF - Ben Revere $ 0.5 million
CF - Denard Span $3.0 million
RF -
DH -
4th OF -
CIF - Luke Hughes $0.5 million
MIF - Tsuyoshi Nishioka $ 3.0 million
C -
SP - Carl Pavano $ 8.5 million
SP - Francisco Liriano $ 6.0 million
SP - Scott Baker $6.5 million
SP -
SP - Nick Blackburn $4.75 million
Cl -
SU - Glen Perkins $1.8 million
MD - Brian Duensing $0.5 million
MD -
MD -
MD -
Long - Anthony Swarzak $0.5 million
TOTAL: $77.25 million
I want absolutely nothing to do with Drew Butera, Alex Burnett, and Jose Mijares. That's three 40-man roster spots to save to go with $1.7 million. So, we are left with a decision about Nishioka (I want him playing every day in AAA). We are left with $75.55 million and holes at SS, MIF, RF, DH, 4thOF, Backup C, SP, Cl, and 3 bullpen spots. Add Trevor Plouffe for $500K to serve as a super utility player in the middle infield and corner outfield. We are at $76.05 million.
We will assume $35 million, then $30 million, then $25 million to work with. And here is the entire list of players that I deem interchangeable to fit in depending on the situation (Joe Nathan is the only Twins FA I am considering keeping around):
C - Ryan Doumit (2 years, 9 million, 4-5), Chris Ianetta (2 years, $8.5 million, 3.5-5), Ryan Hannigan (2 years, $3.3 million, 1.2-2.1), Kelly Shoppach ($2 million),
SS - Clint Barmes (2 years, $8 million, 3-5), Jamey Carroll ($2 million), Edgar Renteria ($1 million),
RF - David DeJesus ($5.5 million), Magglio Ordonez ($2.5 million), Laynce Nix ($1.5 million), Jonny Gomes ($1.25 million), Nate McLouth ($750K), Marcus Thames ($750K)
DH - Derrek Lee (and 1B) ($5 million and incentives), Vladimir Guerrero ($5 million), Hideki Matsui ($4 million), Jorge Posada ($4 million)
4thOF - any of the above RF and Johnny Damon ($4 million), Andruw Jones ($2 million)
SP - Kevin Slowey ($3.3 million), Brandon Webb (minor league deal), Scott Kazmir (minor league deal), Scott Diamond ($450K)
CL - Joe Nathan (2 years, $14 million-7-7), (let Glen Perkins have it), Jonathan Broxton ($4 million plus incentives), Octavio Dotel ($4 million)
MD--the above, LaTroy Hawkins ($2 million), Todd Coffey ($2.1 million), Michael Wuertz ($1 million), Anthony Slama ($450K), Kyle Waldrop ($450K), Carlos Gutierrez ($450K), Lester Oliveros ($475k),
One way to look at the roster is to project which positions will need to be filled for more than one year given that there is no clear replacement in Rochester or New Britain to step in the lineup in 2013. With the likes of Joe Benson, Chris Parmelee, Rene Tosoni, Brian Dozier, Chris Herrmann, Yangervis Solarte, Liam Hendriks, David Bromberg, Cole DeVries, hopefully Alex Wimmers and Kyle Gibson, and the Carlos Gutierrez, Anthony Slama, Kyle Waldrop, Deolis Guerra, and Andrew Albers, however, it isn't clear that a youth movement is out of the question for 2013.
That said, if $35 million is available, aggressively pursuing Doumit and Barmes would be a wise decision. That's $7 million combined and the backup C and starting SS positions filled with two RH bats. This allows the signing of LH David DeJesus, who provides above average defense and should not play against LH pitchers. With that, either Jonny Gomes or Marcus Thames would provide solid platoon options. Pencil in the higher figure ($1.25) here. Now we are at $21.25 million left. I fill out the roster with a DH who can also play 1B, and that is Derrek Lee with a $5 million plus incentives deal. $16 million left. Add Plouffe to serve as utility player (500K)--$15.5 left.
Say bye to Kevin Slowey (in this scenario only) and sign Joe Nathan to a 2 year, $15 million deal at $7.5 each year (in this scenario only).
I sign both Brandon Webb and Scott Kazmir to minor-league deals and have them compete in spring with Scott Diamond for a spot in the rotation. Diamond was very unlucky last year, and appears to be an adequate bottom of the rotation guy. I like taking cheap risks on Webb and Kazmir, two guys who when healthy were very good. Let's say Diamond wins at $0.45 million. That's $7.55 million left for three bullpen spots. I like Slama, Gutierrez, Waldrop and Oliveros as backup plans in this $110 million scenario, so I sign Octavio Dotel (or if not available, Jonathan Broxton) for $4 million, LaTroy Hawkins for $2 million, and Michael Wuertz for $1 million, leaving me at around $109.45 million.
C - Joe Mauer $23 million
1B - Justin Morneau $14 million
2B - Alexi Casilla (arb.) $2.5 million
3B - Danny Valencia $0.5 million
SS - Clint Barmes $3 million
LF - Ben Revere $ 0.5 million
CF - Denard Span $3.0 million
RF - David DeJesus $5.5 million
DH - Derrek Lee $5 million
4th OF - Jonny Gomes or Marcus Thames $1.25 million
CIF - Luke Hughes $0.5 million
MIF - Tsuyoshi Nishioka $ 3.0 million (starts in AAA, playing every day with Brian Dozier), Trevor Plouffe $0.5 million
C - Ryan Doumit $4 million
SP - Carl Pavano $ 8.5 million
SP - Francisco Liriano $ 6.0 million
SP - Scott Baker $6.5 million
SP - Scott Diamond $0.5 million
SP - Nick Blackburn $4.75 million
Cl - Joe Nathan $7.5 million
SU - Glen Perkins $1.8 million
MD - Brian Duensing $0.5 million
MD - Octavio Dotel $4 million (or Jonathan Broxton $4 million plus incentives)
MD -
MD -
Long - Anthony Swarzak $0.5 million
Next is the $30 million scenario. Starting with the roster at $110 million, I make the following alterations:
C - Joe Mauer $23 million
1B - Justin Morneau $14 million
2B - Alexi Casilla (arb.) $2.5 million
3B - Danny Valencia $0.5 million
SS -
LF - Ben Revere $ 0.5 million
CF - Denard Span $3.0 million
RF - David DeJesus $5.5 million
DH - Derrek Lee $5 million
CIF - Luke Hughes $0.5 million
MIF - Tsuyoshi Nishioka $ 3.0 million (starts in AAA, playing every day with Brian Dozier), Trevor Plouffe $0.5 million
C -
SP - Carl Pavano $ 8.5 million
SP - Francisco Liriano $ 6.0 million
SP - Scott Baker $6.5 million
SP -
SP - Nick Blackburn $4.75 million
Cl -
SU -
MD - Brian Duensing $0.5 million
MD -
MD -
MD -
Long - Anthony Swarzak $0.5 million
And finally at the lowest rate . . . starting with that first $110 million payroll again:
C - Joe Mauer $23 million
1B - Justin Morneau $14 million
2B - Alexi Casilla (arb.) $2.5 million
3B - Danny Valencia $0.5 million
SS -
LF - Ben Revere $ 0.5 million
CF - Denard Span $3.0 million
RF -
DH - Derrek Lee $5 million
4th OF -
CIF - Luke Hughes $0.5 million
MIF - Tsuyoshi Nishioka $ 3.0 million (starts in AAA, playing every day with Brian Dozier), Trevor Plouffe $0.5 million
C -
SP - Carl Pavano $ 8.5 million
SP - Francisco Liriano $ 6.0 million
SP - Scott Baker $6.5 million
SP -
SP - Nick Blackburn $4.75 million
Cl -
SU -
MD - Brian Duensing $0.5 million
MD -
MD - LaTroy Hawkins $2 million
MD -
Long - Anthony Swarzak $0.5 million
I will present the three variations in the next post, but I wanted to show the process. It is effective to start spending at the highest level and then work down.
(Edited to fix the order that these three are presented in)
Thursday, November 10, 2011
Review of the GM Handbook
Twins Centric has released their annual GM Handbook, a 134-page PDF featuring Michael Cuddyer (perhaps a big ? should also be there) on the cover and a wealth of information inside. Here, I am going to review the Handbook and offer a fifth blueprint for the Twins 2012 season.
Some general comments are needed first. John Bonnes, Parker Hageman, Nick Nelson, and Seth Stohs are the equivalent of Joel McHale--they did the research and analyzed the 2011 Twins so you don't have to. After Patrick Reusse's Foreward (no comment here), the Handbook proceeds to analyze the 2011 season, the payroll and the 40-man roster questions. This is followed by my personal favorite part of the Handbook, the organizational depth charts. Seth Stohs does a fantastic job providing information for each position throughout the system. The Handbook continues with grades for every Twins player, arbitration-eligibles, and free agent and trade targets (also a strength of the Handbook is the depth of this section). Each of the four bloggers then outlines their blueprints for the 2012 season and the Handbook concludes with a much-too-short "What are you going to do in the offseason?" section of some select players in the organization.
Understanding the payroll situation is vital for all Twins fans to be able to claim to know anything about what the team can reasonably do in the offseason (and this should be required before being allowed to comment on the StarTribune's website). John Bonnes makes the situation quite clear--as is, the Twins are committed to $77.25 million in player salaries ($75.55 million if you do not include the criminally horrible Drew Butera, Alex Burnett, and Jose Mijares, but alas, these three may continue to pollute the 40-man roster next season). The roster holes resulting from this payroll situation really set up the rest of the Handbook.
The detail provided in the roster decisions for next year is a major strength of the Handbook. The 40-man roster still is depressing given how the Twins overvalue some seriously bad players and might risk losing some good minor league prospects in their obsession to add mediocre relievers each offseason. Seth provides sound reasons why he would add the five players he wishes to add to the roster (this is found down in his blueprint). Hopefully the Twins will think likewise (and include a 6th player from the list!--Solarte).
As I have already said, my favorite part of the Handbook is probably the organizational depth charts. Let's just put it this way--let's hope that Chris Herrmann proves to be good for the Twins and let's also hope that Miguel Sano sticks at third. The catching and third base situation in the system is not good.
The player report cards are as expected. Perkins at the top and a whole bunch at the bottom.
The arbitration-eligibles situation is pretty clear. A pray that Jose Mijares is signed and traded in some package to some sucker team.
The free agent decisions weigh heavily on the front office. It is possible for 0-3 of these players to be re-signed. Matt Capps will be gone, likely to be a decent setup man for some team in the NL. The Cuddyer-Kubel-Nathan question is the most important non-injury-related item in the Handbook. I will say that there is upside to not paying for any one of them.
The trade targets section is fairly helpful, though Brandon Morrow is not going to be traded and if C.J. Wilson leaves the Rangers, Colby Lewis isn't going anywhere either. I still maintain that a Kevin Slowey for Ty Wigginton trade is very possible, but Wigginton doesn't appear at all in the Handbook. It is not at all clear why Matt Garza is included in this section. The Twins would never take him back, and the Cubs gave up way too much to get him, so they are going to keep him around post-Zambrano. Tyler Clippard would be nice (as long as Span is not involved).
The free agent pool section is more helpful, certainly. And it comes with expected contracts for every player. This really helps when determining who may fit where and for how much (likely).
Onto the blueprints: PLEASE NOTE that I started this review one day and then paused a few days to finish it. In the meantime, the Twins fired Bill Smith and named Terry Ryan interim GM. And then there was the $100 million payroll disclosure, which is probably the bottom end of some range with the top at $110 million. This actually does not seriously affect the blueprints all that much, though.
I have to say that Parker Hageman's blueprint seems vastly superior to the others. Nick Nelson's is my next favorite because it opens up more possibilities for ad hoc trades mid-season next year (and is the closest to that $100 million figure). I like the general idea of letting Kubel and Cuddyer both leave, unless Kubel would be willing to accept arbitration or a two-year deal. I predict right now that Cuddyer ends up in Philadelphia which will really overpay him a great deal, and Kubel ends up in Boston or Texas (and he will be good in both places). Signing Joe Nathan is something I like, but if payroll is set to decrease it is going to be either losing Nathan or not signing a David DeJesus or Derrek Lee, at the very least. I like almost everything about Parker's blueprint. Colby Lewis would be a great idea, but if C.J. Wilson leaves the Rangers, there is no way the Rangers are trading Lewis away. I don't know if trading Slowey and X prospect for Ianetta is really better than just signing Barajas and trading Slowey for Wigginton, but Parker's blueprint excels in his good use of 4 or 4-5 million bucks here and there (Octavio Dotel, David DeJesus, Clint Barmes, and Derrek Lee--one of my all-time favorite players), and then dropping down in the 1-2 million range (Wuertz and Nix).
Finally, the "what are you working on this offseason?" Player Development section is a great look into players at various levels, but this section would be better early in the Handbook. A small and minor quibble for an intriguing glimpse into things. I really would like to hear for Miguel Sano, Eddie Rosario, and Oswaldo Arcia though!
All in all, this is a wonderful must-read for Twins fans. These guys are fantastic and they produce something that may be unheard of for other MLB teams (I don't know how many other teams have bloggers writing about them at this level). I will share my blueprint in the next post.
Onto the blueprints: PLEASE NOTE that I started this review one day and then paused a few days to finish it. In the meantime, the Twins fired Bill Smith and named Terry Ryan interim GM. And then there was the $100 million payroll disclosure, which is probably the bottom end of some range with the top at $110 million. This actually does not seriously affect the blueprints all that much, though.
I have to say that Parker Hageman's blueprint seems vastly superior to the others. Nick Nelson's is my next favorite because it opens up more possibilities for ad hoc trades mid-season next year (and is the closest to that $100 million figure). I like the general idea of letting Kubel and Cuddyer both leave, unless Kubel would be willing to accept arbitration or a two-year deal. I predict right now that Cuddyer ends up in Philadelphia which will really overpay him a great deal, and Kubel ends up in Boston or Texas (and he will be good in both places). Signing Joe Nathan is something I like, but if payroll is set to decrease it is going to be either losing Nathan or not signing a David DeJesus or Derrek Lee, at the very least. I like almost everything about Parker's blueprint. Colby Lewis would be a great idea, but if C.J. Wilson leaves the Rangers, there is no way the Rangers are trading Lewis away. I don't know if trading Slowey and X prospect for Ianetta is really better than just signing Barajas and trading Slowey for Wigginton, but Parker's blueprint excels in his good use of 4 or 4-5 million bucks here and there (Octavio Dotel, David DeJesus, Clint Barmes, and Derrek Lee--one of my all-time favorite players), and then dropping down in the 1-2 million range (Wuertz and Nix).
Finally, the "what are you working on this offseason?" Player Development section is a great look into players at various levels, but this section would be better early in the Handbook. A small and minor quibble for an intriguing glimpse into things. I really would like to hear for Miguel Sano, Eddie Rosario, and Oswaldo Arcia though!
All in all, this is a wonderful must-read for Twins fans. These guys are fantastic and they produce something that may be unheard of for other MLB teams (I don't know how many other teams have bloggers writing about them at this level). I will share my blueprint in the next post.
Monday, October 3, 2011
Scenarios (cont.)
Sign Kubel and Cuddyer, let Nathan leave, Thome retires:
I dislike this immensely. If they both miraculously accepted arbitration, that would be great--one year deals for these two would be fantastic, but it is extremely doubtful that either one is going to accept anything under 3 years. And the Twins should not do that.
Sign Kubel, let Cuddyer leave:
This would still require a RH bat to be added, and I really dislike Kubel doing anything other than DHing. It would not be terrible if the Twins could convince him to take a 2-year deal, but that is unlikely.
I dislike this immensely. If they both miraculously accepted arbitration, that would be great--one year deals for these two would be fantastic, but it is extremely doubtful that either one is going to accept anything under 3 years. And the Twins should not do that.
Sign Kubel, let Cuddyer leave:
This would still require a RH bat to be added, and I really dislike Kubel doing anything other than DHing. It would not be terrible if the Twins could convince him to take a 2-year deal, but that is unlikely.
Scenarios
Let's run through the possible scenarios involving Twins free agents and personnel decisions:
1. Sign Cuddyer, sign Nathan, let Kubel and Capps leave:
Now what? Assuming the Cuddyer deal is for three years and the Nathan deal is for two, this real limits the Twins UNLESS the idea is to sign and trade Cuddyer. I could see keeping Cuddyer and trading him in July (buying OR selling, hopefully) for pitching help. Regardless, this would leave the Twins with two holes. Maybe Thome gets signed and Dustin Martin promoted? Other free agent possibilities include Bobby Abreu, Johnny Damon, and David DeJesus to fill this LH hitting gap.
Capps as a setup man could get replaced internally or externally, I suppose. The external options are a mess to think about here in early October, so I won't speculate. Carlos Gutierrez could be an internal option to accompany Glen Perkins in the setup role.
2. Let Cuddyer, Kubel, and Capps leave, sign Nathan (my personal favorite): I like this option as this eliminates the need to hope for some midseason trade of one or more of these guys and the fear of having these guys in unproductive times for multiple years. If there was a way to get Cuddyer and Kubel to resign for one year and a total of 16-20 million, that would be one thing. Not going to happen, though. I like the idea of replacing Cuddyer and Kubel with the likes of Bobby Abreu/Johnny Damon and Ty Wigginton/Brad Haupe (Wigginton via trade) on one year deals for likely about the same production given some kind of platoon. Likely cost is 10 million for this year only.
to be continued:
1. Sign Cuddyer, sign Nathan, let Kubel and Capps leave:
Now what? Assuming the Cuddyer deal is for three years and the Nathan deal is for two, this real limits the Twins UNLESS the idea is to sign and trade Cuddyer. I could see keeping Cuddyer and trading him in July (buying OR selling, hopefully) for pitching help. Regardless, this would leave the Twins with two holes. Maybe Thome gets signed and Dustin Martin promoted? Other free agent possibilities include Bobby Abreu, Johnny Damon, and David DeJesus to fill this LH hitting gap.
Capps as a setup man could get replaced internally or externally, I suppose. The external options are a mess to think about here in early October, so I won't speculate. Carlos Gutierrez could be an internal option to accompany Glen Perkins in the setup role.
2. Let Cuddyer, Kubel, and Capps leave, sign Nathan (my personal favorite): I like this option as this eliminates the need to hope for some midseason trade of one or more of these guys and the fear of having these guys in unproductive times for multiple years. If there was a way to get Cuddyer and Kubel to resign for one year and a total of 16-20 million, that would be one thing. Not going to happen, though. I like the idea of replacing Cuddyer and Kubel with the likes of Bobby Abreu/Johnny Damon and Ty Wigginton/Brad Haupe (Wigginton via trade) on one year deals for likely about the same production given some kind of platoon. Likely cost is 10 million for this year only.
to be continued:
Prospects for 2012: The First Edition
Without going into details, my preliminary rankings going into post-instrux and the AFL are:
1. Miguel Sano
2. Oswaldo Arcia
3. Liam Hendriks
4. Aaron Hicks
5. Kyle Gibson
6. Joe Benson
7. Eddie Rosario
8. Adrian Salcedo
9. Brian Dozier
10. Chris Parmelee
11. Angel Morales
12. Alex Wimmers
13. Max Kepler
14. Manuel Soliman
15. B.J. Hermsen
16. Carlos Gutierrez
17. Tim Shibuya
18. Niko Goodrum
19. Nate Roberts
20. Dave Bromberg
21. Daniel Ortiz
22. Tom Stuifbergen
23. Chris Herrmann
24. Pat Dean
25. Lance Ray
26. Deolis Guerra
27. Cole DeVries
28. Andrew Albers
29. Yangervis Solarte
30. Tyler Robertson
31. Jairo Perez
32. Anthony Slama
33. JaDamion Williams
34. Madison Boer
35. Steve Hirschfeld
36. Scott Diamond
37. Dakota Watts
38. Logan Darnell
39. James Beresford
40. Pat Dean
41. Kennys Vargas
42. Danny Rams
43. Kane Holbrooks
44. Evan Bigley
45. Michael Gonzales
46. Anderson Hidalgo
47. Daniel Santana
48. Nick Lockwood
49. Pedro Guerra
50. Rory Rhodes
Others to watch: Bruce Pugh, Todd Van Steensel, Bart Carter, Phillip Chapman, Kelvin Ortiz, Ryan O'Rourke, Clint Dempster, Tyler Grimes, Levi Michael
1. Miguel Sano
2. Oswaldo Arcia
3. Liam Hendriks
4. Aaron Hicks
5. Kyle Gibson
6. Joe Benson
7. Eddie Rosario
8. Adrian Salcedo
9. Brian Dozier
10. Chris Parmelee
11. Angel Morales
12. Alex Wimmers
13. Max Kepler
14. Manuel Soliman
15. B.J. Hermsen
16. Carlos Gutierrez
17. Tim Shibuya
18. Niko Goodrum
19. Nate Roberts
20. Dave Bromberg
21. Daniel Ortiz
22. Tom Stuifbergen
23. Chris Herrmann
24. Pat Dean
25. Lance Ray
26. Deolis Guerra
27. Cole DeVries
28. Andrew Albers
29. Yangervis Solarte
30. Tyler Robertson
31. Jairo Perez
32. Anthony Slama
33. JaDamion Williams
34. Madison Boer
35. Steve Hirschfeld
36. Scott Diamond
37. Dakota Watts
38. Logan Darnell
39. James Beresford
40. Pat Dean
41. Kennys Vargas
42. Danny Rams
43. Kane Holbrooks
44. Evan Bigley
45. Michael Gonzales
46. Anderson Hidalgo
47. Daniel Santana
48. Nick Lockwood
49. Pedro Guerra
50. Rory Rhodes
Others to watch: Bruce Pugh, Todd Van Steensel, Bart Carter, Phillip Chapman, Kelvin Ortiz, Ryan O'Rourke, Clint Dempster, Tyler Grimes, Levi Michael
Twins season wrap
There are many good things about the Twins season this year:
Jim Thome's 600th homer.
Harmon Killebrew tribute.
Joe Nathan's record-breaking save (even while the save stat is stupid--it isn't his fault!).
Francisco Liriano threw a no-hitter.
Glen Perkins established himself as an upper-tier setup man.
Chris Parmelee showed that he will be a legitimate contributor in the near future.
It became clear that Brian Duensing needs to be a situational lefty out of the bullpen.
Ben Revere showed that he's close, and even if that "close" just means close to Juan Pierre quality, that actually isn't too bad.
Michael Cuddyer had a good year.
Some young guys got a taste and showed intermittent signs of being able to contribute in 2012. These players are: Rene Tosoni, Trevor Plouffe, Luke Hughes, Joe Benson, Liam Hendriks, Lester Oliveros, and Brian Dinkelman. I don't think that some of them *should* contribute in 2012, but that is no matter.
Jim Thome's 600th homer.
Harmon Killebrew tribute.
Joe Nathan's record-breaking save (even while the save stat is stupid--it isn't his fault!).
Francisco Liriano threw a no-hitter.
Glen Perkins established himself as an upper-tier setup man.
Chris Parmelee showed that he will be a legitimate contributor in the near future.
It became clear that Brian Duensing needs to be a situational lefty out of the bullpen.
Ben Revere showed that he's close, and even if that "close" just means close to Juan Pierre quality, that actually isn't too bad.
Michael Cuddyer had a good year.
Some young guys got a taste and showed intermittent signs of being able to contribute in 2012. These players are: Rene Tosoni, Trevor Plouffe, Luke Hughes, Joe Benson, Liam Hendriks, Lester Oliveros, and Brian Dinkelman. I don't think that some of them *should* contribute in 2012, but that is no matter.
Wednesday, August 10, 2011
Top 20 Twins Prospects August 2011
1. Oswaldo Arcia
-Arcia has continued his tremendous hitting in 2011 and jumped a level to Fort Myers where the 20.3-year-old has an OPS of .753 while still recovery from injury. He is striking out too much still, but that is to be expected for his age at high-A ball. He will undoubtedly begin next season at Fort Myers.
2. Miguel Sano
-Sano's .899 OPS is impressive, to say the least, especially when considering his age (18.3). He has 10 homers and 27 extra base hits in just 204 plate appearances. It is unclear where he will end up defensively. It would be tremendous if he could develop his third base skills and stay there. That will be his task next year at Beloit.
3. Liam Hendriks
- Hendriks has been steady up until his last start in Rochester. He has shot up the rankings and may potentially see a September call up. He will be in contention for the starting rotation next year, though will likely start in Rochester.
4. Aaron Hicks
-Hicks seems to underachieve every other year, but the secondary stats are still good despite hitting around .240 and slumping miserably. I think he would have roughly the same numbers if he were up in New Britain, so I hope the Twins don't make a foolish decision and start him at Fort Myers again next year. He belongs in New Britain at the beginning of 2012.
5. Joe Benson
-Benson has cut down on the strikeouts a bit while his power numbers have declined some. He looks like a potential doubles machine and will be ready, I think, for a 2012 September callup at the very least. Of course if two of the Young-Kubel-Cuddyer triad are gone next year, he may be up much sooner.
6. Kyle Gibson
-His elbow problems are scary. It might be best to undergo surgery now and thus be ready for the beginning of 2013. He is a hard worker, so I would think the 18 months would be enough. But that means . . . NOW.
7. Angel Morales
-He's back. And he has come back in stride at Fort Myers with a .764 OPS after getting off to a slow start. He is whiffing too much, but I would expect him to start at Fort Myers and eventually move up to join Hicks at New Britain at some point next season.
8. Adrian Salcedo
-Still solid. Probably should be moved up to Fort Myers by now to see what he can do. Will start there next year.
9. Chris Parmelee
-Has done everything right this year and has managed to take the positives from the last two seasons and blend them together for a more polished all-around hitting game. And he is walking more. He will start at Rochester next year and be ready for a call-up if Justin Morneau continues to be the problem that he is.
10. B.J. Hermsen
--It's good to get another pitcher up here with the problems Wimmers has had and the injury to Bromberg. Hermsen gives up a lot of hits, but he doesn't let many of them score. Should start at Fort Myers next year.
11. Eddie Rosario
12. David Bromberg
13. Max Kepler
14. Manuel Soliman
15. Alex Wimmers
16. Carlos Gutierrez
17. Brian Dozier
18. Bruce Pugh
19. Chris Hermmann
20. Lance Ray
I am leaving Revere, Tosoni, and Plouffe off, though they would be on this list. Nishioka is off off off. Some others to look at are Daniel Ortiz, Logan Darnell, Andrew Albers, Niko Goodrum, and Nate Roberts.
Thursday, June 9, 2011
Here we go
The Twins are winning games again. And this time we can say, well, "Mauer and Nishioka are about ready" because they are. Aside from the 2012+ benefits of what has gone on in the organization, I see benefits for the here and now, and still see a 11.5 game deficit as no ultra big deal. If if were Chicago at the top, I would be more concerned. I do not expect Cleveland or Detroit to win more than 85 games.
It is good to see Alexi Casilla doing something. And it is nice to see Ben Revere getting it done as well.
Imagine what the lineup will be like when, given the diversity of the lineup, Kubel, Thome, Mauer, and Nishioka are all ready again?
The pitching is goodish again.
It is good to see Alexi Casilla doing something. And it is nice to see Ben Revere getting it done as well.
Imagine what the lineup will be like when, given the diversity of the lineup, Kubel, Thome, Mauer, and Nishioka are all ready again?
The pitching is goodish again.
Prospect watch
1. Aaron Hicks (CF/RF)
AGE: 21.8. .262/.360/.378. Ok bb/k ratio. 6/10 steals. 2012 forecast: New Britain full year.
2. Miguel Sano (SS/3B/1B)
AGE: 18.1. Extended spring training. Can't wait to see how this season goes. 2012 forecast: Beloit.
3. Tsuyoshi Nishioka (2B/SS)
AGE: 26.10. Back soon with the Twins. Looked bewildered, but should be fine. 2012 forecast: Twins.
4. Kyle Gibson (SP)
AGE: 23.8. 3.90 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 64 K, 11 BB in 60 innings. Some inconsistency. He seems like a Scott Baker clone. That would be a good thing this year. 2012 forecast: Twins 3-4 starter
5. Angel Morales (CF/RF)
AGE: 21.7. ulgh! injuries. Done for the year. What a tragedy for this guy. 2012 forecast: recovering from injury and spending the rest of the year at Fort Myers. Still very young.
6. Alex Wimmers (SP)
AGE: 22.7. ulgh, hopefully this is just a fluke. Total disaster this year.
7. Liam Hendricks (SP).
AGE: 22.4. 2.75 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 58K, 13 BB in 59 innings. Fantastic start again. 2012 Forecast: Rochester full season, threatening MLB roster.
8. Joe Benson (CF/RF)
AGE 23.3. .294/.380/.489 with still too many strikeouts. A few more walks, however, and Benson has impressed by bringing that average up. Power is down, though. 2012 forecast: Rochester full year, September MLB callup.
AGE 23.3. .294/.380/.489 with still too many strikeouts. A few more walks, however, and Benson has impressed by bringing that average up. Power is down, though. 2012 forecast: Rochester full year, September MLB callup.
9. Ben Revere (CF/LF)
AGE:23.1. Batted over .300 at Rochester. Now batting over .300 for the Twins. 2012 forecast: Twins starting LF (assuming that two of these three are gone next year: Young, Cuddyer, Kubel).
AGE:23.1. Batted over .300 at Rochester. Now batting over .300 for the Twins. 2012 forecast: Twins starting LF (assuming that two of these three are gone next year: Young, Cuddyer, Kubel).
10. Oswaldo Arcia (CF/RF)
AGE: 20.1. Was going ape like last year before getting injured but should be back by August. 2012 forecast: Fort Myers full year for the real test.
AGE: 20.1. Was going ape like last year before getting injured but should be back by August. 2012 forecast: Fort Myers full year for the real test.
Friday, June 3, 2011
2012?
I have seen other blogs refer to the need to think soley of 2012 at this point. I am not going to be foolish and say that I think the Twins are due for a miracle recovery, but I am not throwing away this season just yet.
By July they will be at full strenth.
By July they will be at full strenth.
Thursday, May 19, 2011
Bullpen shaping up
After a tortuous start to the season, the bullpen might finally be taking appropriate shape. I still think two additions are necessary (Chuck James and Carlos Gutierrez/Anthony Slama), but I like how things look with Slowey, Perkins, Capps, and yes, Nathan.
Wednesday, May 11, 2011
On the Farm: Beloit
BATTING:
My number 21 prospect, Danny Ortiz, is having a great start to the season. He alone could make Aaron Hicks expendable.
He is 38-107, with 7 HR, 22 RBI, 7 BB, 16K, 2-5 SB-SBA, and a .355/.397/.673 line. He has played significant time at all three outfield positions. He's 21.4 years old. Fort Myers is just over the horizon this year.
No. 10 Oswaldo Arcia was just recently placed on the disabled list. His numbers are even better than Ortiz's. He is 25-71 with 5 HR, 18 RBI, 9 BB, 16 K, 2-4 SBA, and a .352/.420/.704 line. He has merely picked up where he left off in ELZ last year. Hopefully he will be back at it soon. He just turned 20 on May 9th.
His replacement out of extended spring training is no. 27 Nate Roberts. And . . . he's 12-34 with a .353/.511/.412. Less power, but more discipline. He's 22.2 and has mostly played left field. This is an impressive OF in Beloit. I see no reason for *all* of these three to not be up at Fort Myers in the middle of the season.
Another player to watch: Jamaal Hawkins. Hitting ok, but is 7-7 in stolen base attempts. .811 OPS . SS. 22.5 years old.
PITCHING:
Adrian Salcedo is no. 12 on my list and he has not disappointed this year. 31-7 K-BB ratio in 36 innings. 2.50 ERA. Just turned 20 April 24th.
Soliman (16) Hermsen (18), Garcia (37), Lobanov (43), Tonkin (47), and Darnell (48) all have some work to do.
Two more pitchers to watch: Blayne Weller and Matthew Hauser.
My number 21 prospect, Danny Ortiz, is having a great start to the season. He alone could make Aaron Hicks expendable.
He is 38-107, with 7 HR, 22 RBI, 7 BB, 16K, 2-5 SB-SBA, and a .355/.397/.673 line. He has played significant time at all three outfield positions. He's 21.4 years old. Fort Myers is just over the horizon this year.
No. 10 Oswaldo Arcia was just recently placed on the disabled list. His numbers are even better than Ortiz's. He is 25-71 with 5 HR, 18 RBI, 9 BB, 16 K, 2-4 SBA, and a .352/.420/.704 line. He has merely picked up where he left off in ELZ last year. Hopefully he will be back at it soon. He just turned 20 on May 9th.
His replacement out of extended spring training is no. 27 Nate Roberts. And . . . he's 12-34 with a .353/.511/.412. Less power, but more discipline. He's 22.2 and has mostly played left field. This is an impressive OF in Beloit. I see no reason for *all* of these three to not be up at Fort Myers in the middle of the season.
Another player to watch: Jamaal Hawkins. Hitting ok, but is 7-7 in stolen base attempts. .811 OPS . SS. 22.5 years old.
PITCHING:
Adrian Salcedo is no. 12 on my list and he has not disappointed this year. 31-7 K-BB ratio in 36 innings. 2.50 ERA. Just turned 20 April 24th.
Soliman (16) Hermsen (18), Garcia (37), Lobanov (43), Tonkin (47), and Darnell (48) all have some work to do.
Two more pitchers to watch: Blayne Weller and Matthew Hauser.
The Twins are terrible
And the health issue is still going to be a major problem for the next few weeks as only Young and Thome will be back before June (Repko doesn't count--Jason Repko is terrible).
I usually don't panic, but I do think it is time to work a trade to bring in somebody. Far and away the most obvious player is Jose Reyes. The Mets need starting pitching and outfield depth. Maybe they need some middle relievers. The Twins are deep in those areas, especially the OF. If the Twins could get away with keeping Hicks and Gibson out of this, I would endorse trading almost any combination of players for Reyes. I would imagine that this would mean some combination of Duensing/Perkins, Revere/Tosoni, Slowey/Baker or, if the Mets were willing to wait a few years, Morales/Arcia and Wimmers/Salcedo.
I usually don't panic, but I do think it is time to work a trade to bring in somebody. Far and away the most obvious player is Jose Reyes. The Mets need starting pitching and outfield depth. Maybe they need some middle relievers. The Twins are deep in those areas, especially the OF. If the Twins could get away with keeping Hicks and Gibson out of this, I would endorse trading almost any combination of players for Reyes. I would imagine that this would mean some combination of Duensing/Perkins, Revere/Tosoni, Slowey/Baker or, if the Mets were willing to wait a few years, Morales/Arcia and Wimmers/Salcedo.
Ron Gardenhire's managerial numbskullery
On base percentage is an important statistic in baseball. One's batting order should--all things being equal--be constructed so that you stack those players who get on base the most at the top of your lineup and work down. There is a very, extremely, wildly, blatantly clear reason for this--the higher in the batting order one is, the more plate appearances one sees.
Ron Gardenhire has always been incapable of realizing this very simple fact, but he has taken it to new proportions this year. Matt Tolbert started and batted second in the lineup AGAIN last night. If I owned the Twins, I would make sure that someone chewed Gardenhire out for this kind of garbage managing. Jason Kubel should be batting second, or if one wants a little bit more a traditional feel to it, Danny Valencia could be inserted there. It doesn't really matter to me as long at that player has a .300+ OBP. That's desperate . . . but Matt Tolbert's OBP is at .183. That works out to getting on base once per 11-12 innings (when batting second).
Joe Mauer should have been the guy batting second for the past five seasons. He is the prototypical 2-man.
A few years from now, Aaron Hicks should be in that role. Hopefully Gardenhire won't be around to mess that up then.
Ron Gardenhire has always been incapable of realizing this very simple fact, but he has taken it to new proportions this year. Matt Tolbert started and batted second in the lineup AGAIN last night. If I owned the Twins, I would make sure that someone chewed Gardenhire out for this kind of garbage managing. Jason Kubel should be batting second, or if one wants a little bit more a traditional feel to it, Danny Valencia could be inserted there. It doesn't really matter to me as long at that player has a .300+ OBP. That's desperate . . . but Matt Tolbert's OBP is at .183. That works out to getting on base once per 11-12 innings (when batting second).
Joe Mauer should have been the guy batting second for the past five seasons. He is the prototypical 2-man.
A few years from now, Aaron Hicks should be in that role. Hopefully Gardenhire won't be around to mess that up then.
Wednesday, May 4, 2011
In the 8th inning
Bottom of the 8th, White Sox just narrowed the lead to 3-2.
Nick Blackburn gave the Twins a good start today as the starting pitching seems to be coming around. Pavano needs to grow the mustache, or something.
Capps cleans up a slight mess from Perkins.
Ben Revere was called up from Rochester. Maybe one of these games before Young comes back we will see a Revere-Span-Tosoni outfield. It could be a preview for opening day 2012.
Nick Blackburn gave the Twins a good start today as the starting pitching seems to be coming around. Pavano needs to grow the mustache, or something.
Capps cleans up a slight mess from Perkins.
Ben Revere was called up from Rochester. Maybe one of these games before Young comes back we will see a Revere-Span-Tosoni outfield. It could be a preview for opening day 2012.
The Turning Point
Francisco Liriano's no-hitter last night will be the turning point for the Twins this season. I do not mean this as a mere dramatic claim to overhype the meaning of the performance--I really see this as the jumpstart the Twins (and Liriano himself) need to finally play like a major league baseball team.
Jim Thome was placed on the disabled list (don't be surprised if he doesn't get no. 600 this year) and Trevor Plouffe was recalled from Rochester. Plouffe has hit 6 homers and driven in 13 runs so far this year. The addition provides infield depth that is very needed.
Apparently, Jason Repko is also likely to head to the DL. Repko is not a major leaguer and it is ridiculous to use a roster spot on him. Ben Revere could be called up. After starting the season poorly, he has gone on a tear the last 6 games, going 14 for 25 with 3 steals). I would like to see Revere and Tosoni on the Twins next season (if neither one could be involved in a trade for a Jose Reyes or a 1-2 pitcher).
Hopefully Mauer returns soon . . .
Jim Thome was placed on the disabled list (don't be surprised if he doesn't get no. 600 this year) and Trevor Plouffe was recalled from Rochester. Plouffe has hit 6 homers and driven in 13 runs so far this year. The addition provides infield depth that is very needed.
Apparently, Jason Repko is also likely to head to the DL. Repko is not a major leaguer and it is ridiculous to use a roster spot on him. Ben Revere could be called up. After starting the season poorly, he has gone on a tear the last 6 games, going 14 for 25 with 3 steals). I would like to see Revere and Tosoni on the Twins next season (if neither one could be involved in a trade for a Jose Reyes or a 1-2 pitcher).
Hopefully Mauer returns soon . . .
Monday, April 18, 2011
Prospect Watch: New Britain
7. Liam Hendriks
7 2/3 IP, 5.87 ERA, 0.78 WHIP, 8/0 K/BB. His last start was a rough one and it will be very interesting to see if his success has been overhyped. K/BB rate is not overhyped, though. 22.
8. Joe Benson
.385/.442/.615. A strong start with one homer and a 7/4 K/BB ratio. The strikeout numbers are going to be the big thing to watch this year. 3 steals already. 23.
11. David Bromberg
10 IP, 2.70 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 1/2 K/BB. Given up some hits, but they haven't hurt him too much. Will need to strike more people out. Will end the season at AAA. 23 1/2.
14. Chris Parmelee
.357/.372/.548. It is crucial that Parmelee continue his development. Last year his power numbers dropped, but his average went up significantly. Let's see if he can get it together this year. One homer so far. 23.
33. Steve Singleton
.257/.297/.429. The biggest victim of the Twins strange behavior with their middle infielders. Has no business not being at Rochester, and should be in consideration for the Twins this season if this middle infield situation keeps getting worse. Will turn 26 this year.
39. Deolis Guerra
10 IP, 1.80 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 7/2 K/BB. Pleasant surprise to see him doing well early. Has fallen the past two years. Turned 22 (only!) on Sunday. Will end at AAA.
40. Bobby Lanigan
11 1/3 IP, 1.59 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 7/3 K/BB. Could jump a number of other pitchers above him this year. Soon turning 24.
42. Evan Bigley
.242/.265/.273. Rough start and a forgotten man in the deep Twins OF. Just turned 24.
44. Brett Jacobson
5 IP, 9.00 ERA, 1.60 WHIP, 5/3 K/BB. First appearance was very good and the next two were bad. 24 1/2.
Others doing very well early:
Batters: Yangervis Solarte (almost made my list), Danny Lehmann, Mark Dolenc (should have known), and Ray Chang.
Pitchers: Steve Hirschfeld, Cole DeVries, and Jake Stevens.
7 2/3 IP, 5.87 ERA, 0.78 WHIP, 8/0 K/BB. His last start was a rough one and it will be very interesting to see if his success has been overhyped. K/BB rate is not overhyped, though. 22.
8. Joe Benson
.385/.442/.615. A strong start with one homer and a 7/4 K/BB ratio. The strikeout numbers are going to be the big thing to watch this year. 3 steals already. 23.
11. David Bromberg
10 IP, 2.70 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 1/2 K/BB. Given up some hits, but they haven't hurt him too much. Will need to strike more people out. Will end the season at AAA. 23 1/2.
14. Chris Parmelee
.357/.372/.548. It is crucial that Parmelee continue his development. Last year his power numbers dropped, but his average went up significantly. Let's see if he can get it together this year. One homer so far. 23.
33. Steve Singleton
.257/.297/.429. The biggest victim of the Twins strange behavior with their middle infielders. Has no business not being at Rochester, and should be in consideration for the Twins this season if this middle infield situation keeps getting worse. Will turn 26 this year.
39. Deolis Guerra
10 IP, 1.80 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 7/2 K/BB. Pleasant surprise to see him doing well early. Has fallen the past two years. Turned 22 (only!) on Sunday. Will end at AAA.
40. Bobby Lanigan
11 1/3 IP, 1.59 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 7/3 K/BB. Could jump a number of other pitchers above him this year. Soon turning 24.
42. Evan Bigley
.242/.265/.273. Rough start and a forgotten man in the deep Twins OF. Just turned 24.
44. Brett Jacobson
5 IP, 9.00 ERA, 1.60 WHIP, 5/3 K/BB. First appearance was very good and the next two were bad. 24 1/2.
Others doing very well early:
Batters: Yangervis Solarte (almost made my list), Danny Lehmann, Mark Dolenc (should have known), and Ray Chang.
Pitchers: Steve Hirschfeld, Cole DeVries, and Jake Stevens.
Prospect Watch: Fort Myers
1. Aaron Hicks
.273/.351/.364--The number one prospect is off to a so-so start. Still excellent plate discipline, but with only 2 extra base hits and an 0 for 2 showing on the basepaths, Hicks still has to show something more.
20. Kane Holbrooks
17 2/3 IP, 2.55 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 5/4 K/BB. I am a big fan of this guy and expect great things this year. He'll be 24 in a few months and I honestly think he could be vying for a Twins roster spot one year from now. It won't be as a starter though.
29. Dakota Watts
5 IP, 5.40 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 4/0 K/BB. Rough last two appearances, but Watts is the real deal. With Holbrooks, I think next year he could contend for a Twins 'pen spot. I like the heat he brings. At 23 1/2, he needs to maintain solid command this year to impress.
30. James Beresford
.368/.395/.400--One of several underappreciated Twins middle infield prospects (what is the deal with that?), he is a singles-hitter and will need to develop more power. A solid all-around player, the 22-year-old should progress one step a year from now on.
31. Anderson Hidalgo
.240/.296/.400--I think this 3B will become a 2B soon. One homer this year, the 22-year-old is a sleeper in the system who is facing a make or break year.
32. Tom Stuifbergen
9 IP, 10.00 ERA, 2.00 WHIP, 8/2 K/BB. His second start was really bad. I like the command a lot. He's 22, Dutch, and promising, but needs to shake off this rough beginning.
34. Bruce Pugh
5 1/3 IP, 0.00 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 8/1 K/BB. Closing for FTM right now, he has been very impressive. He will turn 23 in July and should be back up at New Britain by that time. If Gutierrez falters as the next closer, look for Pugh to be in the running in a few years.
35. Chris Herrmann
.342/.409/.526--A fantastic start for the versatile OF/C. At 23 1/2, if he can develop some pop and maintain plate discipline, he has a lot of promise.
36. Brian Dozier
.317/.408/.463--The Twins are high on Dozier, and maybe he is giving them good reason to be this season. He turns 24 soon and will not be at Fort Myers for very long.
46. Danny Rams
.313/.371/.500--striking out too much, but he showing at 22 1/2 that he is ready for AA pitching. The Twins catching situation will mean that he should get every opportunity.
Others doing very well:
Batters: Nate Hanson and Nicholas Romero.
Pitchers: Brad Stillings, Edgar Ibarra, and Matthew Tone.
New Britain will be next.
.273/.351/.364--The number one prospect is off to a so-so start. Still excellent plate discipline, but with only 2 extra base hits and an 0 for 2 showing on the basepaths, Hicks still has to show something more.
20. Kane Holbrooks
17 2/3 IP, 2.55 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 5/4 K/BB. I am a big fan of this guy and expect great things this year. He'll be 24 in a few months and I honestly think he could be vying for a Twins roster spot one year from now. It won't be as a starter though.
29. Dakota Watts
5 IP, 5.40 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 4/0 K/BB. Rough last two appearances, but Watts is the real deal. With Holbrooks, I think next year he could contend for a Twins 'pen spot. I like the heat he brings. At 23 1/2, he needs to maintain solid command this year to impress.
30. James Beresford
.368/.395/.400--One of several underappreciated Twins middle infield prospects (what is the deal with that?), he is a singles-hitter and will need to develop more power. A solid all-around player, the 22-year-old should progress one step a year from now on.
31. Anderson Hidalgo
.240/.296/.400--I think this 3B will become a 2B soon. One homer this year, the 22-year-old is a sleeper in the system who is facing a make or break year.
32. Tom Stuifbergen
9 IP, 10.00 ERA, 2.00 WHIP, 8/2 K/BB. His second start was really bad. I like the command a lot. He's 22, Dutch, and promising, but needs to shake off this rough beginning.
34. Bruce Pugh
5 1/3 IP, 0.00 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 8/1 K/BB. Closing for FTM right now, he has been very impressive. He will turn 23 in July and should be back up at New Britain by that time. If Gutierrez falters as the next closer, look for Pugh to be in the running in a few years.
35. Chris Herrmann
.342/.409/.526--A fantastic start for the versatile OF/C. At 23 1/2, if he can develop some pop and maintain plate discipline, he has a lot of promise.
36. Brian Dozier
.317/.408/.463--The Twins are high on Dozier, and maybe he is giving them good reason to be this season. He turns 24 soon and will not be at Fort Myers for very long.
46. Danny Rams
.313/.371/.500--striking out too much, but he showing at 22 1/2 that he is ready for AA pitching. The Twins catching situation will mean that he should get every opportunity.
Others doing very well:
Batters: Nate Hanson and Nicholas Romero.
Pitchers: Brad Stillings, Edgar Ibarra, and Matthew Tone.
New Britain will be next.
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