Top 20 Twins Prospects August 2011

1. Oswaldo Arcia

-Arcia has continued his tremendous hitting in 2011 and jumped a level to Fort Myers where the 20.3-year-old has an OPS of .753 while still recovery from injury. He is striking out too much still, but that is to be expected for his age at high-A ball. He will undoubtedly begin next season at Fort Myers.

2. Miguel Sano

-Sano's .899 OPS is impressive, to say the least, especially when considering his age (18.3). He has 10 homers and 27 extra base hits in just 204 plate appearances. It is unclear where he will end up defensively. It would be tremendous if he could develop his third base skills and stay there. That will be his task next year at Beloit.

3. Liam Hendriks

- Hendriks has been steady up until his last start in Rochester. He has shot up the rankings and may potentially see a September call up. He will be in contention for the starting rotation next year, though will likely start in Rochester.

4. Aaron Hicks

-Hicks seems to underachieve every other year, but the secondary stats are still good despite hitting around .240 and slumping miserably. I think he would have roughly the same numbers if he were up in New Britain, so I hope the Twins don't make a foolish decision and start him at Fort Myers again next year. He belongs in New Britain at the beginning of 2012.

5. Joe Benson

-Benson has cut down on the strikeouts a bit while his power numbers have declined some. He looks like a potential doubles machine and will be ready, I think, for a 2012 September callup at the very least. Of course if two of the Young-Kubel-Cuddyer triad are gone next year, he may be up much sooner.

6. Kyle Gibson

-His elbow problems are scary. It might be best to undergo surgery now and thus be ready for the beginning of 2013. He is a hard worker, so I would think the 18 months would be enough. But that means . . . NOW.

7. Angel Morales

-He's back. And he has come back in stride at Fort Myers with a .764 OPS after getting off to a slow start. He is whiffing too much, but I would expect him to start at Fort Myers and eventually move up to join Hicks at New Britain at some point next season.

8. Adrian Salcedo

-Still solid. Probably should be moved up to Fort Myers by now to see what he can do. Will start there next year.

9. Chris Parmelee

-Has done everything right this year and has managed to take the positives from the last two seasons and blend them together for a more polished all-around hitting game. And he is walking more. He will start at Rochester next year and be ready for a call-up if Justin Morneau continues to be the problem that he is.

10. B.J. Hermsen

--It's good to get another pitcher up here with the problems Wimmers has had and the injury to Bromberg. Hermsen gives up a lot of hits, but he doesn't let many of them score. Should start at Fort Myers next year.

11. Eddie Rosario

12. David Bromberg

13. Max Kepler

14. Manuel Soliman

15. Alex Wimmers

16. Carlos Gutierrez

17. Brian Dozier

18. Bruce Pugh

19. Chris Hermmann

20. Lance Ray

I am leaving Revere, Tosoni, and Plouffe off, though they would be on this list. Nishioka is off off off. Some others to look at are Daniel Ortiz, Logan Darnell, Andrew Albers, Niko Goodrum, and Nate Roberts.

Here we go

The Twins are winning games again. And this time we can say, well, "Mauer and Nishioka are about ready" because they are.  Aside from the 2012+ benefits of what has gone on in the organization, I see benefits for the here and now, and still see a 11.5 game deficit as no ultra big deal. If if were Chicago at the top, I would be more concerned. I do not expect Cleveland or Detroit to win more than 85 games.

It is good to see Alexi Casilla doing something. And it is nice to see Ben Revere getting it done as well.

Imagine what the lineup will be like when, given the diversity of the lineup, Kubel, Thome, Mauer, and Nishioka are all ready again?

The pitching is goodish again.

Prospect watch

1. Aaron Hicks (CF/RF)

AGE: 21.8. .262/.360/.378. Ok bb/k ratio. 6/10 steals.  2012 forecast: New Britain full year.

2. Miguel Sano (SS/3B/1B)

AGE: 18.1. Extended spring training.  Can't wait to see how this season goes. 2012 forecast: Beloit.

3. Tsuyoshi Nishioka (2B/SS)

AGE: 26.10. Back soon with the Twins.  Looked bewildered, but should be fine. 2012 forecast: Twins.

4. Kyle Gibson (SP)

AGE: 23.8. 3.90 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 64 K, 11 BB in 60 innings. Some inconsistency. He seems like a Scott Baker clone.  That would be a good thing this year. 2012 forecast: Twins 3-4 starter

5. Angel Morales (CF/RF)

AGE: 21.7. ulgh! injuries. Done for the year. What a tragedy for this guy. 2012 forecast: recovering from injury and spending the rest of the year at Fort Myers. Still very young.

6. Alex Wimmers (SP)

AGE: 22.7. ulgh, hopefully this is just a fluke.  Total disaster this year.

7. Liam Hendricks (SP).

AGE: 22.4. 2.75 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 58K, 13 BB in 59 innings. Fantastic start again.  2012 Forecast: Rochester full season, threatening MLB roster.

8. Joe Benson (CF/RF)
AGE 23.3. .294/.380/.489 with still too many strikeouts. A few more walks, however, and Benson has impressed by bringing that average up.  Power is down, though. 2012 forecast: Rochester full year, September MLB callup.

9. Ben Revere (CF/LF)
AGE:23.1. Batted over .300 at Rochester. Now batting over .300 for the Twins. 2012 forecast: Twins starting LF (assuming that two of these three are gone next year: Young, Cuddyer, Kubel).

10. Oswaldo Arcia (CF/RF)
AGE: 20.1.  Was going ape like last year before getting injured but should be back by August. 2012 forecast: Fort Myers full year for the real test.

2012?

I have seen other blogs refer to the need to think soley of 2012 at this point.  I am not going to be foolish and say that I think the Twins are due for a miracle recovery, but I am not throwing away this season just yet.

By July they will be at full strenth.

Bullpen shaping up

After a tortuous start to the season, the bullpen might finally be taking appropriate shape.  I still think two additions are necessary (Chuck James and Carlos Gutierrez/Anthony Slama), but I like how things look with Slowey, Perkins, Capps, and yes, Nathan.

On the Farm: Beloit

BATTING:

My number 21 prospect, Danny Ortiz, is having a great start to the season.   He alone could make Aaron Hicks expendable.

He is 38-107, with 7 HR, 22 RBI, 7 BB, 16K, 2-5 SB-SBA, and a .355/.397/.673 line. He has played significant time at all three outfield positions.  He's 21.4 years old.  Fort Myers is just over the horizon this year.

No. 10 Oswaldo Arcia was just recently placed on the disabled list.  His numbers are even better than Ortiz's. He is 25-71 with 5 HR,  18 RBI, 9 BB, 16 K, 2-4 SBA, and a .352/.420/.704 line.  He has merely picked up where he left off in ELZ last year.  Hopefully he will be back at it soon.  He just turned 20 on May 9th.

His replacement out of extended spring training is no. 27 Nate Roberts.  And . . . he's 12-34 with a .353/.511/.412.  Less power, but more discipline. He's 22.2 and has mostly played left field.  This is an impressive OF in Beloit. I see no reason for *all* of these three to not be up at Fort Myers in the middle of the season.

Another player to watch: Jamaal Hawkins.  Hitting ok, but is 7-7 in stolen base attempts. .811 OPS .  SS. 22.5 years old.

PITCHING:

Adrian Salcedo is no. 12 on my list and he has not disappointed this year. 31-7 K-BB ratio in 36 innings. 2.50 ERA. Just turned 20 April 24th.

Soliman (16) Hermsen (18), Garcia (37), Lobanov (43), Tonkin (47), and Darnell (48) all have some work to do.

Two more pitchers to watch: Blayne Weller and Matthew Hauser.

The Twins are terrible

And the health issue is still going to be a major problem for the next few weeks as only Young and Thome will be back before June (Repko doesn't count--Jason Repko is terrible).

I usually don't panic, but I do think it is time to work a trade to bring in somebody.  Far and away the most obvious player is Jose Reyes.  The Mets need starting pitching and outfield depth.  Maybe they need some middle relievers.  The Twins are deep in those areas, especially the OF.  If the Twins could get away with keeping Hicks and Gibson out of this, I would endorse trading almost any combination of players for Reyes. I would imagine that this would mean some combination of Duensing/Perkins, Revere/Tosoni, Slowey/Baker or, if the Mets were willing to wait a few years, Morales/Arcia and Wimmers/Salcedo.