Jonathan Broxton is signing with the Royals for 1 year/$4 million plus incentives. The Twins really missed out on taking a chance on him and the price was right. I am guessing the Twins are looking in the direction of Brad Lidge and Frank Francisco, but I worry about paying for than $6 million for either one of them. Signing Octavio Dotel as a setup man with Perkins and throwing Carlos Gutierrez into the closer role is kinda where I am at right now. Unless they want to do something interesting and sign Rich Harden as the closer. Thinking outside of the box here is the way to go.
The Twins cannot sign Matt Capps, right? He would provide another pick for them if he signs somewhere else. Replenishing the bottom of the system is going to push people like Adrian Salcedo, Manuel Soliman, Madison Boer, Miguel Sano, Eddie Rosario, JaDamion Williams, Levi Michael, Nate Roberts, Michael Gonzales, Lance Ray, etc. up a bit quicker, and that would be a good thing (Fort Myers in July and August could be a really fun team to watch, as far as minor league baseball goes).
Wednesday, November 30, 2011
Monday, November 28, 2011
Twins notes
Tsuyoshi Nishioka is assumed by many to be the 2012 infield utility man, but I have to wonder if he and the Twins wouldn't be better served by starting the year at Rochester to play every day. And it isn't clear that he is anything but a backup shortstop in MLB right now. With Jamey Carroll's infield versatility, Alexi Casilla's middle infield ability, Luke Hughes' good right side defense and his ability to play third base, and Trevor Plouffe's ability to end a game at short if some infield disaster happens, I see Nishioka as a wasted roster spot right now. It's a spot that could go to a Pudge Rodriguez or a Jonny Gomes.
When will the Twins trade outfield depth for pitching needs? The list is massive: Denard Span, Ben Revere, Rene Tosoni, Joe Benson, Dustin Martin, Evan Bigley, Aaron Hicks, Oswaldo Arcia, Eddie Rosario (though hopefully he will be successfully converted to second base), Lance Ray, Nate Roberts, Danny Ortiz, Max Kepler, etc. (I may be forgetting a few other prospects). I am not saying that the Twins should trade the best of this bunch, but the depth is impressive, while the dearth of top of the order pitching prospects is alarming. Martin, Bigley, Roberts, and Ortiz are certainly viable trade candidates, in my view. Packaging two of them with a Kevin Slowey and Alex Burnett, might yield some very good returns.
I am terrified of the Twins attitude towards closers. I really hope that no more than $4-5 gets thrown towards Jonathan Broxton or Brad Lidge on one-year deals. Meanwhile, either train Carlos Gutierrez to close, or trade him. I still think the best idea would be to sign Dotel, move Perkins to the closer role and work from within to build a successful bullpen.
I wonder, given this:
When will the Twins trade outfield depth for pitching needs? The list is massive: Denard Span, Ben Revere, Rene Tosoni, Joe Benson, Dustin Martin, Evan Bigley, Aaron Hicks, Oswaldo Arcia, Eddie Rosario (though hopefully he will be successfully converted to second base), Lance Ray, Nate Roberts, Danny Ortiz, Max Kepler, etc. (I may be forgetting a few other prospects). I am not saying that the Twins should trade the best of this bunch, but the depth is impressive, while the dearth of top of the order pitching prospects is alarming. Martin, Bigley, Roberts, and Ortiz are certainly viable trade candidates, in my view. Packaging two of them with a Kevin Slowey and Alex Burnett, might yield some very good returns.
I am terrified of the Twins attitude towards closers. I really hope that no more than $4-5 gets thrown towards Jonathan Broxton or Brad Lidge on one-year deals. Meanwhile, either train Carlos Gutierrez to close, or trade him. I still think the best idea would be to sign Dotel, move Perkins to the closer role and work from within to build a successful bullpen.
I wonder, given this:
"Ben Lindbergh of Baseball Prospectus did some very interesting research about how rapidly teams move their prospects up the minor-league ladder, finding huge differences between the slowest-moving teams and fastest-moving teams. For position player prospects the Twins are by far MLB's slowest-moving organization, allowing hitters to accumulate an average of 2,600 plate appearances in the minors before making their big-league debuts.
Not only is the Twins' average of 2,600 pre-debut plate appearances about 200 more than the next-slowest Angels, it's 1,000 more than the fastest-moving team, the Mets. That means the average Twins hitter debuts with two more full seasons' worth of plate appearances than the average Mets hitter. We saw that exact dichotomy in action with Carlos Gomez, as the Mets rushed him to the majors at age 21 and the Twins then kept him there at age 22."
Why the Twins traded for Carlos Gomez and Delmon Young, considering how rushed those two players were through the minor leagues. Those two careers may have substantially different had they been given 1-2 more years to figure it out with less pressure in the minors.
Wednesday, November 23, 2011
Interesting development
The Twins will now get a supplemental pick (between the first and second round) if Matt Capps signs elsewhere even when the Twins do not offer arbitration. That is a major development and should put to rest absolutely all talk about re-signing and overpaying for a fully replaceable pitcher. The Twins will have their first round pick, two picks from the Cuddyer-walk (one in the first round ahead of the team that signs him, and one sandwich pick), one sandwich pick from the Kubel-walk, and one pick from Matt Capps leaving (bye bye). This will mean five picks in the top 60-65 total. This is worth letting Cuddyer, Kubel, and Capps all go while signing guys to replace them for cheaper and who may actually out-perform the trio (if the Twins were to add Octavio Dotel, Derrek Lee and either Andruw Jones or Jonny Gomes, I guarantee out-performance).
I have noticed strange things about the Twins blogosphere and falling back on signing replaceable players from within for no good reason. That Matt Capps is even being considered right now is alarming. He should not be back for anything over $2.5 million. Full stop. Wake up, people. He is a valuable pitcher at that price, yes.
But thankfully that talk must be over now that this new labor deal has been signed. The Ramos trade is still terrible, but it is now a bit less terrible.
Those five picks? How about three high-velocity pitchers, one catcher, and one infielder?
I have noticed strange things about the Twins blogosphere and falling back on signing replaceable players from within for no good reason. That Matt Capps is even being considered right now is alarming. He should not be back for anything over $2.5 million. Full stop. Wake up, people. He is a valuable pitcher at that price, yes.
But thankfully that talk must be over now that this new labor deal has been signed. The Ramos trade is still terrible, but it is now a bit less terrible.
Those five picks? How about three high-velocity pitchers, one catcher, and one infielder?
Tuesday, November 22, 2011
Roster update
Suggestions in blue:
C - Joe Mauer $23 million
1B - Justin Morneau $14 million
2B - Alexi Casilla (arb.) $2.5 million
3B - Danny Valencia $0.5 million
SS - Jamey Carroll $2.8 million
LF - Ben Revere $ 0.5 million
CF - Denard Span $3.0 million
RF - Andruw Jones $2.2 million
DH - Derrek Lee $5.3 million
4th OF - Trevor Plouffe $0.5 million
CIF - Luke Hughes $0.5 million
UTIL - Tsuyoshi Nishioka $ 3.0 million (starts in AAA, playing every day with Brian Dozier), Ryan Doumit $3 million
C - Ivan Rodriguez $1.5 million
SP - Carl Pavano $ 8.5 million
SP - Francisco Liriano $ 6.0 million
SP - Scott Baker $6.5 million
SP - Kevin Slowey $3.5 million
SP - Nick Blackburn $4.8 million
Cl - Glen Perkins (likely) $2 million
SU - Octavio Dotel $4 million
MD - Brian Duensing $0.5 million
MD - LaTroy Hawkins $2 million
MD - Anthony Slama $0.5 million
MD - Kyle Waldrop $0.5 million
Long - Anthony Swarzak $0.5 million
$101.6 million, I believe. This leaves room for trading Slowey for some lower minors live arms and signing a Mark Buehrle at $10 million, or trading some combo of Slowey, Burnett, Mijares, Evan Bigley, and Bruce Pugh for a viable $6-10 million pitcher.
C - Joe Mauer $23 million
1B - Justin Morneau $14 million
2B - Alexi Casilla (arb.) $2.5 million
3B - Danny Valencia $0.5 million
SS - Jamey Carroll $2.8 million
LF - Ben Revere $ 0.5 million
CF - Denard Span $3.0 million
RF - Andruw Jones $2.2 million
DH - Derrek Lee $5.3 million
4th OF - Trevor Plouffe $0.5 million
CIF - Luke Hughes $0.5 million
UTIL - Tsuyoshi Nishioka $ 3.0 million (starts in AAA, playing every day with Brian Dozier), Ryan Doumit $3 million
C - Ivan Rodriguez $1.5 million
SP - Carl Pavano $ 8.5 million
SP - Francisco Liriano $ 6.0 million
SP - Scott Baker $6.5 million
SP - Kevin Slowey $3.5 million
SP - Nick Blackburn $4.8 million
Cl - Glen Perkins (likely) $2 million
SU - Octavio Dotel $4 million
MD - Brian Duensing $0.5 million
MD - LaTroy Hawkins $2 million
MD - Anthony Slama $0.5 million
MD - Kyle Waldrop $0.5 million
Long - Anthony Swarzak $0.5 million
$101.6 million, I believe. This leaves room for trading Slowey for some lower minors live arms and signing a Mark Buehrle at $10 million, or trading some combo of Slowey, Burnett, Mijares, Evan Bigley, and Bruce Pugh for a viable $6-10 million pitcher.
Joe Nathan signs with Rangers
2 years, $14.5 million. Well, this coupled with the two players signed by the Twins, makes the off-season a bit clearer. The Twins are going to have to add two pitchers to the bullpen from outside the organization. I would sign Octavio Dotel and LaTroy Hawkins. Give Perkins the closer job and let Dotel be the backup plan if Perk falters in that role. Otherwise you have Hawkins in the 7th, Duensing and Dotel to matchup lefty-righty in the 8th, and Perkins in the 9th. I would round out the bullpen with Swarzak, Slama, and Waldrop after trying to shop Burnett and Mijares for live arms lower in the minors. Manship, Oliveros, Guerra, Robertson, Gutierrez, Gray, Dumatrait, and Maloney can be in Rochester.
Dotel and Hawkins would combine for about $5.5-6 million in salary, which is right around the figure already added by the Twins with the Carroll ($2.8 million for the first year) and Doumit ($3 million) signings. Even if Slowey stays and gets $4 million, the Twins should still have $10 million to spend.
Dotel and Hawkins would combine for about $5.5-6 million in salary, which is right around the figure already added by the Twins with the Carroll ($2.8 million for the first year) and Doumit ($3 million) signings. Even if Slowey stays and gets $4 million, the Twins should still have $10 million to spend.
Monday, November 21, 2011
Doumit splits revisited
So I made a mistake the other day in claiming that Doumit was better as a right-handed bat against lefties. It is true that the 2011 numbers indicate that, his career numbers are .798 against righties and .718 against lefties, and he certainly has more pop from the left side. See Parker Hageman's analysis
This means that the Twins still need one or two right-handed bats. The Phillies traded for Ty Wigginton, a player I would have liked the Twins to trade Kevin Slowey for (along with an exchange of prospects). This may mean that Michael Cuddyer is a bit less of a need for them. I am certain that the Rockies are now going to be very interested, and other teams like the Red Sox, Giants, Mets, Cubs, and Brewers (depending on where Prince Fielder ends up) will be interested as well. Some have speculated that Cuddyer's stock may plummet, but I think it is too early to tell.
I still like Andruw Jones, Derrek Lee, Magglio Ordonez, and Jonny Gomes as potential targets. You can add Cody Ross to that list, I suppose. Lee is still an option in my view because Doumit has not actually played much at first, and he was terrible there.
Finally, I am liking the idea of adding Pudge Rodriguez cheaply to be the second/third catcher (Butera needs to become a coach). I would seriously consider moving Nishioka to AAA Rochester to share middle infield duties there with Brian Dozier. With Carroll, Casilla, and Hughes, there is infield flexibility (and if catastrophe strikes mid-game, Plouffe could finish a game at short). Nishioka, to be successfull, needs to play every day. He can do that for a few months at Rochester and then come up as the first guy in the infield when an injury occurs.
This means that the Twins still need one or two right-handed bats. The Phillies traded for Ty Wigginton, a player I would have liked the Twins to trade Kevin Slowey for (along with an exchange of prospects). This may mean that Michael Cuddyer is a bit less of a need for them. I am certain that the Rockies are now going to be very interested, and other teams like the Red Sox, Giants, Mets, Cubs, and Brewers (depending on where Prince Fielder ends up) will be interested as well. Some have speculated that Cuddyer's stock may plummet, but I think it is too early to tell.
I still like Andruw Jones, Derrek Lee, Magglio Ordonez, and Jonny Gomes as potential targets. You can add Cody Ross to that list, I suppose. Lee is still an option in my view because Doumit has not actually played much at first, and he was terrible there.
Finally, I am liking the idea of adding Pudge Rodriguez cheaply to be the second/third catcher (Butera needs to become a coach). I would seriously consider moving Nishioka to AAA Rochester to share middle infield duties there with Brian Dozier. With Carroll, Casilla, and Hughes, there is infield flexibility (and if catastrophe strikes mid-game, Plouffe could finish a game at short). Nishioka, to be successfull, needs to play every day. He can do that for a few months at Rochester and then come up as the first guy in the infield when an injury occurs.
Friday, November 18, 2011
Twins sign Ryan Doumit
The Twins signed Ryan Doumit to a 1 year, $3 million deal plus incentives. This is actually on the cheap side, and makes up for any overpaying done to Jamey Carroll. Doumit will be 31 next April. He has primarily been a catcher, but has also spent decent time in RF and at 1B. He's a switch hitter who mauls lefties from the right side (2011 OPS .912 but is still good against righties from the left side (2011 OPS .802). Doumit is a cheap Cuddyer-lite but with the bonus of being able to catch against lefties. This means that Drew Butera would be relegated to only a late-inning defensive replacement, or he is gone altogether (much preferable, and in favor of Danny Lehmann, please).
I am surprised that these two deals have happened so soon, but it is a pleasant surprise. Now 1 or 2 more bats (one lefty like Nix or DeJesus, and one righty like Derrek Lee or Andruw Jones) and the team can turn it's attention to pitching. About $7 million has been spent on plugging two key holes in the roster.
**** In other news, for whatever reason, David Bromberg was sent to Rochester. Thankfully, he cleared waivers. I am a bit scared that Angel Morales or Tom Stuifbergen could be picked up in the Rule 5 draft, but I think they are likely safe. Oswaldo Arcia, Carlos Gutierrez, and Tyler Robertson were added to the 40-man. Good for Tyler, as he is the only non-obvious choice of the three. Jose Mijares, you are on notice . . . .
I am surprised that these two deals have happened so soon, but it is a pleasant surprise. Now 1 or 2 more bats (one lefty like Nix or DeJesus, and one righty like Derrek Lee or Andruw Jones) and the team can turn it's attention to pitching. About $7 million has been spent on plugging two key holes in the roster.
**** In other news, for whatever reason, David Bromberg was sent to Rochester. Thankfully, he cleared waivers. I am a bit scared that Angel Morales or Tom Stuifbergen could be picked up in the Rule 5 draft, but I think they are likely safe. Oswaldo Arcia, Carlos Gutierrez, and Tyler Robertson were added to the 40-man. Good for Tyler, as he is the only non-obvious choice of the three. Jose Mijares, you are on notice . . . .
Wednesday, November 16, 2011
Arizona Fall League Spotlight: Chris Herrmann
There is a lot of talk about the dearth of catching prospects in the Twins system. The Twins hit a gold mine with Joe Mauer, a once in a generation catching prospect. While it is true that the organization has had trouble developing many viable MLB catchers, you only need one or two to actually develop into good major league players. Chris Herrmann may be the next viable option for the Twins moving forward (perhaps with a Sept. callup).
Herrmann is doing extremely well in limited playing time in Arizona. His OPS is over 1.100 right now. For all of 2011:
.280/.392/.423 in 558 plate appearances. The .815 OPS is impressive across A/AA and the prospect-ridden AZL. His isolated discipline is a fantastic .112. He is above average defensively behind the plate and in the corner OF positions. Herrmann provides evidence that the Twins need to sign only a one-year stop gap player to fill the role as Mauer's platoon/rest counterpart. He hit 10 homers and stole 13 bases in 2011. If he was a RH hitter, I think he would be the Twins backup catcher going into 2012.
I will be dismayed if Drew Butera is on the Twins roster at all next year. He is essentially the worst hitter in all of MLB and his defense is not stellar and only truly stellar defense could justify taking up a roster spot as even a third catcher on the team (not even if September). If the Twins want a solid defensive third catcher, Danny Lehmann is right there in Rochester and there is no way he would suck at the plate as much as Drew Butera does. 2011 was embarrassing for many reasons, but the main one is that Butera got 254 plate appearances with a sub .450 OPS.
Herrmann is doing extremely well in limited playing time in Arizona. His OPS is over 1.100 right now. For all of 2011:
.280/.392/.423 in 558 plate appearances. The .815 OPS is impressive across A/AA and the prospect-ridden AZL. His isolated discipline is a fantastic .112. He is above average defensively behind the plate and in the corner OF positions. Herrmann provides evidence that the Twins need to sign only a one-year stop gap player to fill the role as Mauer's platoon/rest counterpart. He hit 10 homers and stole 13 bases in 2011. If he was a RH hitter, I think he would be the Twins backup catcher going into 2012.
I will be dismayed if Drew Butera is on the Twins roster at all next year. He is essentially the worst hitter in all of MLB and his defense is not stellar and only truly stellar defense could justify taking up a roster spot as even a third catcher on the team (not even if September). If the Twins want a solid defensive third catcher, Danny Lehmann is right there in Rochester and there is no way he would suck at the plate as much as Drew Butera does. 2011 was embarrassing for many reasons, but the main one is that Butera got 254 plate appearances with a sub .450 OPS.
Monday, November 14, 2011
Plouffe to the outfield
GM Terry Ryan indicated that Trevor Plouffe will be an outfielder this coming season. He had better start shagging fly balls now, because he needs actual experience playing in the outfield. It is very alarming that Plouffe was allowed to stay at shortstop throughout his entire minor league career when he is this bad. And worse at 2B, somehow. This organization just has significant trouble with middle infielders, period.
I can hope against hope that this means a Revere-Plouffe platoon in LF. That could be a remarkably productive platoon as Revere is bound to improve upon that .624 OPS against right-handed pitchers given his minor league track record, and Plouffe is already solid against lefties (.782).
This may mean that my hope that the Twins add 5 position-playing free agents is probably dashed. There would likely be no need to add a RH OF like Andruw Jones or Magglio Ordonez. David DeJesus and Laynce Nix are two candidates to fill RF from the left side of the plate. Plouffe could platoon there as well.
Aside from that, I am still perplexed by the desire to resign Cuddyer to what could be a $13/year contract. For $13 million, the Twins could likely add Derrek Lee, Ryan Doumit, Andruw Jones and Laynce Nix, or Lee, Kelly Shoppach, and David DeJesus. And doing so would eliminate the need to overpay Kubel (in years). Cuddyer is due for a sub-par year and Kubel is injury-prone.
One thing is clear already, though, and that is the addition of Carroll and the potential platoon situation for Plouffe means the Twins should improve their offensive production against lefties.
I can hope against hope that this means a Revere-Plouffe platoon in LF. That could be a remarkably productive platoon as Revere is bound to improve upon that .624 OPS against right-handed pitchers given his minor league track record, and Plouffe is already solid against lefties (.782).
This may mean that my hope that the Twins add 5 position-playing free agents is probably dashed. There would likely be no need to add a RH OF like Andruw Jones or Magglio Ordonez. David DeJesus and Laynce Nix are two candidates to fill RF from the left side of the plate. Plouffe could platoon there as well.
Aside from that, I am still perplexed by the desire to resign Cuddyer to what could be a $13/year contract. For $13 million, the Twins could likely add Derrek Lee, Ryan Doumit, Andruw Jones and Laynce Nix, or Lee, Kelly Shoppach, and David DeJesus. And doing so would eliminate the need to overpay Kubel (in years). Cuddyer is due for a sub-par year and Kubel is injury-prone.
One thing is clear already, though, and that is the addition of Carroll and the potential platoon situation for Plouffe means the Twins should improve their offensive production against lefties.
Sunday, November 13, 2011
On Jamey Carroll
Carroll was in the two cheaper versions of my blueprint, at $2 million for one year. This $3.5/$3.5 expected two-year deal is a bit pricey, but I suppose given the overpaying going on this off-season, the Twins wanted to make sure they got the guy they wanted. Switching out Barmes for Carroll meant that I had to change some things around to get more power on the roster, hence Andruw Jones, Kelly Shoppach, and Laynce Nix replacing the likes of DeJesus (Doumit more for monetary reasons). The Twins will certainly need to add some power after losing Thome, ensuring zero home runs from their starting shortstop, and probably losing Cuddyer and Kubel.
Saturday, November 12, 2011
And then the Twins sign Jamey Carroll
Which is a good thing. The price is quite high though. I am surprised by the size of the contract, but that seems to be the trend so far this offseason.
Blueprint cleaned up
I approach the blueprint with a bit more wiggle room given that there are just certain players who are so interchangeable on the one hand and because it is nice to provide different accounts based on certain expected decisions to be made by the Twins.
To start, let's look at the 2012 payroll as provided by the Twins Centric crew:
C - Joe Mauer $23 million
1B - Justin Morneau $14 million
2B - Alexi Casilla (arb.) $2.5 million
3B - Danny Valencia $0.5 million
SS -
LF - Ben Revere $ 0.5 million
CF - Denard Span $3.0 million
RF -
DH -
4th OF -
CIF - Luke Hughes $0.5 million
MIF - Tsuyoshi Nishioka $ 3.0 million
C -Drew Butera $0.5 million
SP - Carl Pavano $ 8.5 million
SP - Francisco Liriano $ 6.0 million
SP - Scott Baker $6.5 million
SP -
SP - Nick Blackburn $4.75 million
Cl -
SU - Glen Perkins $1.8 million
MD - Brian Duensing $0.5 million
MD -
MD -Alex Burnett $0.5 million
MD -Jose Mijares $0.7 million
Long - Anthony Swarzak $0.5 million
TOTAL: $77.25 million
I want absolutely nothing to do with Drew Butera, Alex Burnett, and Jose Mijares. That's three 40-man roster spots to save to go with $1.7 million. So, we are left with a decision about Nishioka (I want him playing every day in AAA). We are left with $75.55 million and holes at SS, MIF, RF, DH, 4thOF, Backup C, SP, Cl, and 3 bullpen spots. Add Trevor Plouffe for $500K to serve as a super utility player in the middle infield and corner outfield. We are at $76.05 million.
We will assume $35 million, then $30 million, then $25 million to work with.
C - Joe Mauer $23 million
1B - Justin Morneau $14 million
2B - Alexi Casilla (arb.) $2.5 million
3B - Danny Valencia $0.5 million
SS - Clint Barmes $3 million
LF - Ben Revere $ 0.5 million
CF - Denard Span $3.0 million
RF - David DeJesus $5.5 million
DH - Derrek Lee $5 million
4th OF - Jonny Gomes or Marcus Thames $1.25 million
CIF - Luke Hughes $0.5 million
MIF - Tsuyoshi Nishioka $ 3.0 million (starts in AAA, playing every day with Brian Dozier), Trevor Plouffe $0.5 million
C - Ryan Doumit $4 million
SP - Carl Pavano $ 8.5 million
SP - Francisco Liriano $ 6.0 million
SP - Scott Baker $6.5 million
SP - Scott Diamond $0.5 million
SP - Nick Blackburn $4.75 million
Cl - Joe Nathan $7.5 million
SU - Glen Perkins $1.8 million
MD - Brian Duensing $0.5 million
MD - Octavio Dotel $4 million (or Jonathan Broxton $4 million plus incentives)
MD - LaTroy Hawkins $2 million
MD - Michael Wuertz $1 million
Long - Anthony Swarzak $0.5 million
Next is the $30 million scenario. Starting with the roster at $110 million, I make the following alterations:
C - Joe Mauer $23 million
1B - Justin Morneau $14 million
2B - Alexi Casilla (arb.) $2.5 million
3B - Danny Valencia $0.5 million
SS - Jamey Carroll $2 million
LF - Ben Revere $ 0.5 million
CF - Denard Span $3.0 million
RF - David DeJesus $5.5 million
DH - Derrek Lee $5 million
4th OF - Andruw Jones $2 million
CIF - Luke Hughes $0.5 million
MIF - Tsuyoshi Nishioka $ 3.0 million (starts in AAA, playing every day with Brian Dozier), Trevor Plouffe $0.5 million
C - Kelly Shoppach $2 million
SP - Carl Pavano $ 8.5 million
SP - Francisco Liriano $ 6.0 million
SP - Scott Baker $6.5 million
SP - Kevin Slowey $3.5 million
SP - Nick Blackburn $4.75 million
Cl - Glen Perkins (likely) $1.8 million
SU - Octavio Dotel $4 million
MD - Brian Duensing $0.5 million
MD - Jonathan Broxton $4 million plus incentives
MD - Anthony Slama $0.45 million (-$4.80 million)
MD - Kyle Waldrop $0.45 mill (-S5.35 million)
Long - Anthony Swarzak $0.5 million
And finally at the lowest rate . . . starting with that first $110 million payroll again:
C - Joe Mauer $23 million
1B - Justin Morneau $14 million
2B - Alexi Casilla (arb.) $2.5 million
3B - Danny Valencia $0.5 million
SS - Jamey Carroll $2 million or Edgar Renteria $1 million
LF - Ben Revere $ 0.5 million
CF - Denard Span $3.0 million
RF - Magglio Ordonez $2 million
DH - Derrek Lee $5 million
4th OF - Laynce Nix $1.5 million
CIF - Luke Hughes $0.5 million
MIF - Tsuyoshi Nishioka $ 3.0 million (starts in AAA, playing every day with Brian Dozier), Trevor Plouffe $0.5 million
C - Kelly Shoppach $2 million
SP - Carl Pavano $ 8.5 million
SP - Francisco Liriano $ 6.0 million
SP - Scott Baker $6.5 million
SP - Kevin Slowey $3.5 million
SP - Nick Blackburn $4.75 million
Cl - Glen Perkins $1.8 million
SU - Octavio Dotel $4 million
MD - Brian Duensing $0.5 million
MD - Anthony Slama or Kyle Waldrop $0.45 million)
MD - LaTroy Hawkins $2 million
MD - Todd Coffey $2.1 million (-$10.15 million or -$10.65 million)
Long - Anthony Swarzak $0.5 million
(edited to fix the order of presentation)
To start, let's look at the 2012 payroll as provided by the Twins Centric crew:
C - Joe Mauer $23 million
1B - Justin Morneau $14 million
2B - Alexi Casilla (arb.) $2.5 million
3B - Danny Valencia $0.5 million
SS -
LF - Ben Revere $ 0.5 million
CF - Denard Span $3.0 million
RF -
DH -
4th OF -
CIF - Luke Hughes $0.5 million
MIF - Tsuyoshi Nishioka $ 3.0 million
C -
SP - Carl Pavano $ 8.5 million
SP - Francisco Liriano $ 6.0 million
SP - Scott Baker $6.5 million
SP -
SP - Nick Blackburn $4.75 million
Cl -
SU - Glen Perkins $1.8 million
MD - Brian Duensing $0.5 million
MD -
MD -
MD -
Long - Anthony Swarzak $0.5 million
TOTAL: $77.25 million
I want absolutely nothing to do with Drew Butera, Alex Burnett, and Jose Mijares. That's three 40-man roster spots to save to go with $1.7 million. So, we are left with a decision about Nishioka (I want him playing every day in AAA). We are left with $75.55 million and holes at SS, MIF, RF, DH, 4thOF, Backup C, SP, Cl, and 3 bullpen spots. Add Trevor Plouffe for $500K to serve as a super utility player in the middle infield and corner outfield. We are at $76.05 million.
We will assume $35 million, then $30 million, then $25 million to work with.
C - Joe Mauer $23 million
1B - Justin Morneau $14 million
2B - Alexi Casilla (arb.) $2.5 million
3B - Danny Valencia $0.5 million
SS - Clint Barmes $3 million
LF - Ben Revere $ 0.5 million
CF - Denard Span $3.0 million
RF - David DeJesus $5.5 million
DH - Derrek Lee $5 million
4th OF - Jonny Gomes or Marcus Thames $1.25 million
CIF - Luke Hughes $0.5 million
MIF - Tsuyoshi Nishioka $ 3.0 million (starts in AAA, playing every day with Brian Dozier), Trevor Plouffe $0.5 million
C - Ryan Doumit $4 million
SP - Carl Pavano $ 8.5 million
SP - Francisco Liriano $ 6.0 million
SP - Scott Baker $6.5 million
SP - Scott Diamond $0.5 million
SP - Nick Blackburn $4.75 million
Cl - Joe Nathan $7.5 million
SU - Glen Perkins $1.8 million
MD - Brian Duensing $0.5 million
MD - Octavio Dotel $4 million (or Jonathan Broxton $4 million plus incentives)
MD - LaTroy Hawkins $2 million
MD - Michael Wuertz $1 million
Long - Anthony Swarzak $0.5 million
Next is the $30 million scenario. Starting with the roster at $110 million, I make the following alterations:
C - Joe Mauer $23 million
1B - Justin Morneau $14 million
2B - Alexi Casilla (arb.) $2.5 million
3B - Danny Valencia $0.5 million
SS - Jamey Carroll $2 million
LF - Ben Revere $ 0.5 million
CF - Denard Span $3.0 million
RF - David DeJesus $5.5 million
DH - Derrek Lee $5 million
4th OF - Andruw Jones $2 million
CIF - Luke Hughes $0.5 million
MIF - Tsuyoshi Nishioka $ 3.0 million (starts in AAA, playing every day with Brian Dozier), Trevor Plouffe $0.5 million
C - Kelly Shoppach $2 million
SP - Carl Pavano $ 8.5 million
SP - Francisco Liriano $ 6.0 million
SP - Scott Baker $6.5 million
SP - Kevin Slowey $3.5 million
SP - Nick Blackburn $4.75 million
Cl - Glen Perkins (likely) $1.8 million
SU - Octavio Dotel $4 million
MD - Brian Duensing $0.5 million
MD - Jonathan Broxton $4 million plus incentives
MD - Anthony Slama $0.45 million (-$4.80 million)
MD - Kyle Waldrop $0.45 mill (-S5.35 million)
Long - Anthony Swarzak $0.5 million
And finally at the lowest rate . . . starting with that first $110 million payroll again:
C - Joe Mauer $23 million
1B - Justin Morneau $14 million
2B - Alexi Casilla (arb.) $2.5 million
3B - Danny Valencia $0.5 million
SS - Jamey Carroll $2 million or Edgar Renteria $1 million
LF - Ben Revere $ 0.5 million
CF - Denard Span $3.0 million
RF - Magglio Ordonez $2 million
DH - Derrek Lee $5 million
4th OF - Laynce Nix $1.5 million
CIF - Luke Hughes $0.5 million
MIF - Tsuyoshi Nishioka $ 3.0 million (starts in AAA, playing every day with Brian Dozier), Trevor Plouffe $0.5 million
C - Kelly Shoppach $2 million
SP - Carl Pavano $ 8.5 million
SP - Francisco Liriano $ 6.0 million
SP - Scott Baker $6.5 million
SP - Kevin Slowey $3.5 million
SP - Nick Blackburn $4.75 million
Cl - Glen Perkins $1.8 million
SU - Octavio Dotel $4 million
MD - Brian Duensing $0.5 million
MD - Anthony Slama or Kyle Waldrop $0.45 million)
MD - LaTroy Hawkins $2 million
MD - Todd Coffey $2.1 million (-$10.15 million or -$10.65 million)
Long - Anthony Swarzak $0.5 million
(edited to fix the order of presentation)
Blueprint for 2012
I approach the blueprint with a bit more wiggle room given that there are just certain players who are so interchangeable on the one hand and because it is nice to provide different accounts based on certain expected decisions to be made by the Twins.
To start, let's look at the 2012 payroll as provided by the Twins Centric crew:
C - Joe Mauer $23 million
1B - Justin Morneau $14 million
2B - Alexi Casilla (arb.) $2.5 million
3B - Danny Valencia $0.5 million
SS -
LF - Ben Revere $ 0.5 million
CF - Denard Span $3.0 million
RF -
DH -
4th OF -
CIF - Luke Hughes $0.5 million
MIF - Tsuyoshi Nishioka $ 3.0 million
C -Drew Butera $0.5 million
SP - Carl Pavano $ 8.5 million
SP - Francisco Liriano $ 6.0 million
SP - Scott Baker $6.5 million
SP -
SP - Nick Blackburn $4.75 million
Cl -
SU - Glen Perkins $1.8 million
MD - Brian Duensing $0.5 million
MD -
MD -Alex Burnett $0.5 million
MD -Jose Mijares $0.7 million
Long - Anthony Swarzak $0.5 million
TOTAL: $77.25 million
I want absolutely nothing to do with Drew Butera, Alex Burnett, and Jose Mijares. That's three 40-man roster spots to save to go with $1.7 million. So, we are left with a decision about Nishioka (I want him playing every day in AAA). We are left with $75.55 million and holes at SS, MIF, RF, DH, 4thOF, Backup C, SP, Cl, and 3 bullpen spots. Add Trevor Plouffe for $500K to serve as a super utility player in the middle infield and corner outfield. We are at $76.05 million.
We will assume $35 million, then $30 million, then $25 million to work with. And here is the entire list of players that I deem interchangeable to fit in depending on the situation (Joe Nathan is the only Twins FA I am considering keeping around):
C - Ryan Doumit (2 years, 9 million, 4-5), Chris Ianetta (2 years, $8.5 million, 3.5-5), Ryan Hannigan (2 years, $3.3 million, 1.2-2.1), Kelly Shoppach ($2 million),Rod Barajas ($3 million)
SS - Clint Barmes (2 years, $8 million, 3-5), Jamey Carroll ($2 million), Edgar Renteria ($1 million),
RF - David DeJesus ($5.5 million), Magglio Ordonez ($2.5 million), Laynce Nix ($1.5 million), Jonny Gomes ($1.25 million), Nate McLouth ($750K), Marcus Thames ($750K)
DH - Derrek Lee (and 1B) ($5 million and incentives), Vladimir Guerrero ($5 million), Hideki Matsui ($4 million), Jorge Posada ($4 million)
4thOF - any of the above RF and Johnny Damon ($4 million), Andruw Jones ($2 million)
SP - Kevin Slowey ($3.3 million), Brandon Webb (minor league deal), Scott Kazmir (minor league deal), Scott Diamond ($450K)
CL - Joe Nathan (2 years, $14 million-7-7), (let Glen Perkins have it), Jonathan Broxton ($4 million plus incentives), Octavio Dotel ($4 million)
MD--the above, LaTroy Hawkins ($2 million), Todd Coffey ($2.1 million), Michael Wuertz ($1 million), Anthony Slama ($450K), Kyle Waldrop ($450K), Carlos Gutierrez ($450K), Lester Oliveros ($475k),
One way to look at the roster is to project which positions will need to be filled for more than one year given that there is no clear replacement in Rochester or New Britain to step in the lineup in 2013. With the likes of Joe Benson, Chris Parmelee, Rene Tosoni, Brian Dozier, Chris Herrmann, Yangervis Solarte, Liam Hendriks, David Bromberg, Cole DeVries, hopefully Alex Wimmers and Kyle Gibson, and the Carlos Gutierrez, Anthony Slama, Kyle Waldrop, Deolis Guerra, and Andrew Albers, however, it isn't clear that a youth movement is out of the question for 2013.
That said, if $35 million is available, aggressively pursuing Doumit and Barmes would be a wise decision. That's $7 million combined and the backup C and starting SS positions filled with two RH bats. This allows the signing of LH David DeJesus, who provides above average defense and should not play against LH pitchers. With that, either Jonny Gomes or Marcus Thames would provide solid platoon options. Pencil in the higher figure ($1.25) here. Now we are at $21.25 million left. I fill out the roster with a DH who can also play 1B, and that is Derrek Lee with a $5 million plus incentives deal. $16 million left. Add Plouffe to serve as utility player (500K)--$15.5 left.
Say bye to Kevin Slowey (in this scenario only) and sign Joe Nathan to a 2 year, $15 million deal at $7.5 each year (in this scenario only).
I sign both Brandon Webb and Scott Kazmir to minor-league deals and have them compete in spring with Scott Diamond for a spot in the rotation. Diamond was very unlucky last year, and appears to be an adequate bottom of the rotation guy. I like taking cheap risks on Webb and Kazmir, two guys who when healthy were very good. Let's say Diamond wins at $0.45 million. That's $7.55 million left for three bullpen spots. I like Slama, Gutierrez, Waldrop and Oliveros as backup plans in this $110 million scenario, so I sign Octavio Dotel (or if not available, Jonathan Broxton) for $4 million, LaTroy Hawkins for $2 million, and Michael Wuertz for $1 million, leaving me at around $109.45 million.
C - Joe Mauer $23 million
1B - Justin Morneau $14 million
2B - Alexi Casilla (arb.) $2.5 million
3B - Danny Valencia $0.5 million
SS - Clint Barmes $3 million
LF - Ben Revere $ 0.5 million
CF - Denard Span $3.0 million
RF - David DeJesus $5.5 million
DH - Derrek Lee $5 million
4th OF - Jonny Gomes or Marcus Thames $1.25 million
CIF - Luke Hughes $0.5 million
MIF - Tsuyoshi Nishioka $ 3.0 million (starts in AAA, playing every day with Brian Dozier), Trevor Plouffe $0.5 million
C - Ryan Doumit $4 million
SP - Carl Pavano $ 8.5 million
SP - Francisco Liriano $ 6.0 million
SP - Scott Baker $6.5 million
SP - Scott Diamond $0.5 million
SP - Nick Blackburn $4.75 million
Cl - Joe Nathan $7.5 million
SU - Glen Perkins $1.8 million
MD - Brian Duensing $0.5 million
MD - Octavio Dotel $4 million (or Jonathan Broxton $4 million plus incentives)
MD -Alex Burnett $0.5 million LaTroy Hawkins $2 million
MD -Jose Mijares $0.7 million Michael Wuertz $1 million
Long - Anthony Swarzak $0.5 million
Next is the $30 million scenario. Starting with the roster at $110 million, I make the following alterations:
C - Joe Mauer $23 million
1B - Justin Morneau $14 million
2B - Alexi Casilla (arb.) $2.5 million
3B - Danny Valencia $0.5 million
SS -Clint Barmes $3 million Jamey Carroll $2 million (-1 million)
LF - Ben Revere $ 0.5 million
CF - Denard Span $3.0 million
RF - David DeJesus $5.5 million
DH - Derrek Lee $5 million
4th OF - Jonny Gomes or Marcus Thames $1.25 million Andruw Jones $2 million (-0.25 million)
CIF - Luke Hughes $0.5 million
MIF - Tsuyoshi Nishioka $ 3.0 million (starts in AAA, playing every day with Brian Dozier), Trevor Plouffe $0.5 million
C -Ryan Doumit $4 million Kelly Shoppach $2 million (-2.25 million)
SP - Carl Pavano $ 8.5 million
SP - Francisco Liriano $ 6.0 million
SP - Scott Baker $6.5 million
SP -Scott Diamond $0.5 million Kevin Slowey $3.5 million (+$0.75 million)
SP - Nick Blackburn $4.75 million
Cl -Joe Nathan $7.5 million Glen Perkins (likely) $1.8 million (-$6.75 million)
SU -Glen Perkins $1.8 million Octavio Dotel $4 million
MD - Brian Duensing $0.5 million
MD -Octavio Dotel $4 million (or Jonathan Broxton $4 million plus incentives (-$2.75 million)
MD -LaTroy Hawkins $2 million Anthony Slama $0.45 million (-$4.30 million)
MD -Michael Wuertz $1 million Kyle Waldrop $0.45 mill (-$4.85 million)
Long - Anthony Swarzak $0.5 million
And finally at the lowest rate . . . starting with that first $110 million payroll again:
C - Joe Mauer $23 million
1B - Justin Morneau $14 million
2B - Alexi Casilla (arb.) $2.5 million
3B - Danny Valencia $0.5 million
SS -Clint Barmes $3 million Jamey Carroll $2 million or Edgar Renteria $1 million (-$1 million or -$2 million)
LF - Ben Revere $ 0.5 million
CF - Denard Span $3.0 million
RF -David DeJesus $5.5 million Magglio Ordonez $2 million (-$4.5 or -$5.5 million)
DH - Derrek Lee $5 million
4th OF -Jonny Gomes or Marcus Thames $1.25 million Laynce Nix $1.5 million (-$4.25 million or -$5.25 million)
CIF - Luke Hughes $0.5 million
MIF - Tsuyoshi Nishioka $ 3.0 million (starts in AAA, playing every day with Brian Dozier), Trevor Plouffe $0.5 million
C -Ryan Doumit $4 million Kelly Shoppach $2 million (-$6.25 or -$7.25)
SP - Carl Pavano $ 8.5 million
SP - Francisco Liriano $ 6.0 million
SP - Scott Baker $6.5 million
SP -Scott Diamond $0.5 million Kevin Slowey $3.5 million (-$3.25 or -$4.25)
SP - Nick Blackburn $4.75 million
Cl -Joe Nathan $7.5 million Glen Perkins $1.8 million (-$10.75 or -$11.75)
SU -Glen Perkins $1.8 million Octavio Dotel $4 million
MD - Brian Duensing $0.5 million
MD -Octavio Dotel $4 million (or Jonathan Broxton $4 million plus incentives
MD - LaTroy Hawkins $2 million
MD -Michael Wuertz $1 million Todd Coffey $2.1 million (-$9.65 million or -$10.65 million)
Long - Anthony Swarzak $0.5 million
I will present the three variations in the next post, but I wanted to show the process. It is effective to start spending at the highest level and then work down.
(Edited to fix the order that these three are presented in)
To start, let's look at the 2012 payroll as provided by the Twins Centric crew:
C - Joe Mauer $23 million
1B - Justin Morneau $14 million
2B - Alexi Casilla (arb.) $2.5 million
3B - Danny Valencia $0.5 million
SS -
LF - Ben Revere $ 0.5 million
CF - Denard Span $3.0 million
RF -
DH -
4th OF -
CIF - Luke Hughes $0.5 million
MIF - Tsuyoshi Nishioka $ 3.0 million
C -
SP - Carl Pavano $ 8.5 million
SP - Francisco Liriano $ 6.0 million
SP - Scott Baker $6.5 million
SP -
SP - Nick Blackburn $4.75 million
Cl -
SU - Glen Perkins $1.8 million
MD - Brian Duensing $0.5 million
MD -
MD -
MD -
Long - Anthony Swarzak $0.5 million
TOTAL: $77.25 million
I want absolutely nothing to do with Drew Butera, Alex Burnett, and Jose Mijares. That's three 40-man roster spots to save to go with $1.7 million. So, we are left with a decision about Nishioka (I want him playing every day in AAA). We are left with $75.55 million and holes at SS, MIF, RF, DH, 4thOF, Backup C, SP, Cl, and 3 bullpen spots. Add Trevor Plouffe for $500K to serve as a super utility player in the middle infield and corner outfield. We are at $76.05 million.
We will assume $35 million, then $30 million, then $25 million to work with. And here is the entire list of players that I deem interchangeable to fit in depending on the situation (Joe Nathan is the only Twins FA I am considering keeping around):
C - Ryan Doumit (2 years, 9 million, 4-5), Chris Ianetta (2 years, $8.5 million, 3.5-5), Ryan Hannigan (2 years, $3.3 million, 1.2-2.1), Kelly Shoppach ($2 million),
SS - Clint Barmes (2 years, $8 million, 3-5), Jamey Carroll ($2 million), Edgar Renteria ($1 million),
RF - David DeJesus ($5.5 million), Magglio Ordonez ($2.5 million), Laynce Nix ($1.5 million), Jonny Gomes ($1.25 million), Nate McLouth ($750K), Marcus Thames ($750K)
DH - Derrek Lee (and 1B) ($5 million and incentives), Vladimir Guerrero ($5 million), Hideki Matsui ($4 million), Jorge Posada ($4 million)
4thOF - any of the above RF and Johnny Damon ($4 million), Andruw Jones ($2 million)
SP - Kevin Slowey ($3.3 million), Brandon Webb (minor league deal), Scott Kazmir (minor league deal), Scott Diamond ($450K)
CL - Joe Nathan (2 years, $14 million-7-7), (let Glen Perkins have it), Jonathan Broxton ($4 million plus incentives), Octavio Dotel ($4 million)
MD--the above, LaTroy Hawkins ($2 million), Todd Coffey ($2.1 million), Michael Wuertz ($1 million), Anthony Slama ($450K), Kyle Waldrop ($450K), Carlos Gutierrez ($450K), Lester Oliveros ($475k),
One way to look at the roster is to project which positions will need to be filled for more than one year given that there is no clear replacement in Rochester or New Britain to step in the lineup in 2013. With the likes of Joe Benson, Chris Parmelee, Rene Tosoni, Brian Dozier, Chris Herrmann, Yangervis Solarte, Liam Hendriks, David Bromberg, Cole DeVries, hopefully Alex Wimmers and Kyle Gibson, and the Carlos Gutierrez, Anthony Slama, Kyle Waldrop, Deolis Guerra, and Andrew Albers, however, it isn't clear that a youth movement is out of the question for 2013.
That said, if $35 million is available, aggressively pursuing Doumit and Barmes would be a wise decision. That's $7 million combined and the backup C and starting SS positions filled with two RH bats. This allows the signing of LH David DeJesus, who provides above average defense and should not play against LH pitchers. With that, either Jonny Gomes or Marcus Thames would provide solid platoon options. Pencil in the higher figure ($1.25) here. Now we are at $21.25 million left. I fill out the roster with a DH who can also play 1B, and that is Derrek Lee with a $5 million plus incentives deal. $16 million left. Add Plouffe to serve as utility player (500K)--$15.5 left.
Say bye to Kevin Slowey (in this scenario only) and sign Joe Nathan to a 2 year, $15 million deal at $7.5 each year (in this scenario only).
I sign both Brandon Webb and Scott Kazmir to minor-league deals and have them compete in spring with Scott Diamond for a spot in the rotation. Diamond was very unlucky last year, and appears to be an adequate bottom of the rotation guy. I like taking cheap risks on Webb and Kazmir, two guys who when healthy were very good. Let's say Diamond wins at $0.45 million. That's $7.55 million left for three bullpen spots. I like Slama, Gutierrez, Waldrop and Oliveros as backup plans in this $110 million scenario, so I sign Octavio Dotel (or if not available, Jonathan Broxton) for $4 million, LaTroy Hawkins for $2 million, and Michael Wuertz for $1 million, leaving me at around $109.45 million.
C - Joe Mauer $23 million
1B - Justin Morneau $14 million
2B - Alexi Casilla (arb.) $2.5 million
3B - Danny Valencia $0.5 million
SS - Clint Barmes $3 million
LF - Ben Revere $ 0.5 million
CF - Denard Span $3.0 million
RF - David DeJesus $5.5 million
DH - Derrek Lee $5 million
4th OF - Jonny Gomes or Marcus Thames $1.25 million
CIF - Luke Hughes $0.5 million
MIF - Tsuyoshi Nishioka $ 3.0 million (starts in AAA, playing every day with Brian Dozier), Trevor Plouffe $0.5 million
C - Ryan Doumit $4 million
SP - Carl Pavano $ 8.5 million
SP - Francisco Liriano $ 6.0 million
SP - Scott Baker $6.5 million
SP - Scott Diamond $0.5 million
SP - Nick Blackburn $4.75 million
Cl - Joe Nathan $7.5 million
SU - Glen Perkins $1.8 million
MD - Brian Duensing $0.5 million
MD - Octavio Dotel $4 million (or Jonathan Broxton $4 million plus incentives)
MD -
MD -
Long - Anthony Swarzak $0.5 million
Next is the $30 million scenario. Starting with the roster at $110 million, I make the following alterations:
C - Joe Mauer $23 million
1B - Justin Morneau $14 million
2B - Alexi Casilla (arb.) $2.5 million
3B - Danny Valencia $0.5 million
SS -
LF - Ben Revere $ 0.5 million
CF - Denard Span $3.0 million
RF - David DeJesus $5.5 million
DH - Derrek Lee $5 million
CIF - Luke Hughes $0.5 million
MIF - Tsuyoshi Nishioka $ 3.0 million (starts in AAA, playing every day with Brian Dozier), Trevor Plouffe $0.5 million
C -
SP - Carl Pavano $ 8.5 million
SP - Francisco Liriano $ 6.0 million
SP - Scott Baker $6.5 million
SP -
SP - Nick Blackburn $4.75 million
Cl -
SU -
MD - Brian Duensing $0.5 million
MD -
MD -
MD -
Long - Anthony Swarzak $0.5 million
And finally at the lowest rate . . . starting with that first $110 million payroll again:
C - Joe Mauer $23 million
1B - Justin Morneau $14 million
2B - Alexi Casilla (arb.) $2.5 million
3B - Danny Valencia $0.5 million
SS -
LF - Ben Revere $ 0.5 million
CF - Denard Span $3.0 million
RF -
DH - Derrek Lee $5 million
4th OF -
CIF - Luke Hughes $0.5 million
MIF - Tsuyoshi Nishioka $ 3.0 million (starts in AAA, playing every day with Brian Dozier), Trevor Plouffe $0.5 million
C -
SP - Carl Pavano $ 8.5 million
SP - Francisco Liriano $ 6.0 million
SP - Scott Baker $6.5 million
SP -
SP - Nick Blackburn $4.75 million
Cl -
SU -
MD - Brian Duensing $0.5 million
MD -
MD - LaTroy Hawkins $2 million
MD -
Long - Anthony Swarzak $0.5 million
I will present the three variations in the next post, but I wanted to show the process. It is effective to start spending at the highest level and then work down.
(Edited to fix the order that these three are presented in)
Thursday, November 10, 2011
Review of the GM Handbook
Twins Centric has released their annual GM Handbook, a 134-page PDF featuring Michael Cuddyer (perhaps a big ? should also be there) on the cover and a wealth of information inside. Here, I am going to review the Handbook and offer a fifth blueprint for the Twins 2012 season.
Some general comments are needed first. John Bonnes, Parker Hageman, Nick Nelson, and Seth Stohs are the equivalent of Joel McHale--they did the research and analyzed the 2011 Twins so you don't have to. After Patrick Reusse's Foreward (no comment here), the Handbook proceeds to analyze the 2011 season, the payroll and the 40-man roster questions. This is followed by my personal favorite part of the Handbook, the organizational depth charts. Seth Stohs does a fantastic job providing information for each position throughout the system. The Handbook continues with grades for every Twins player, arbitration-eligibles, and free agent and trade targets (also a strength of the Handbook is the depth of this section). Each of the four bloggers then outlines their blueprints for the 2012 season and the Handbook concludes with a much-too-short "What are you going to do in the offseason?" section of some select players in the organization.
Understanding the payroll situation is vital for all Twins fans to be able to claim to know anything about what the team can reasonably do in the offseason (and this should be required before being allowed to comment on the StarTribune's website). John Bonnes makes the situation quite clear--as is, the Twins are committed to $77.25 million in player salaries ($75.55 million if you do not include the criminally horrible Drew Butera, Alex Burnett, and Jose Mijares, but alas, these three may continue to pollute the 40-man roster next season). The roster holes resulting from this payroll situation really set up the rest of the Handbook.
The detail provided in the roster decisions for next year is a major strength of the Handbook. The 40-man roster still is depressing given how the Twins overvalue some seriously bad players and might risk losing some good minor league prospects in their obsession to add mediocre relievers each offseason. Seth provides sound reasons why he would add the five players he wishes to add to the roster (this is found down in his blueprint). Hopefully the Twins will think likewise (and include a 6th player from the list!--Solarte).
As I have already said, my favorite part of the Handbook is probably the organizational depth charts. Let's just put it this way--let's hope that Chris Herrmann proves to be good for the Twins and let's also hope that Miguel Sano sticks at third. The catching and third base situation in the system is not good.
The player report cards are as expected. Perkins at the top and a whole bunch at the bottom.
The arbitration-eligibles situation is pretty clear. A pray that Jose Mijares is signed and traded in some package to some sucker team.
The free agent decisions weigh heavily on the front office. It is possible for 0-3 of these players to be re-signed. Matt Capps will be gone, likely to be a decent setup man for some team in the NL. The Cuddyer-Kubel-Nathan question is the most important non-injury-related item in the Handbook. I will say that there is upside to not paying for any one of them.
The trade targets section is fairly helpful, though Brandon Morrow is not going to be traded and if C.J. Wilson leaves the Rangers, Colby Lewis isn't going anywhere either. I still maintain that a Kevin Slowey for Ty Wigginton trade is very possible, but Wigginton doesn't appear at all in the Handbook. It is not at all clear why Matt Garza is included in this section. The Twins would never take him back, and the Cubs gave up way too much to get him, so they are going to keep him around post-Zambrano. Tyler Clippard would be nice (as long as Span is not involved).
The free agent pool section is more helpful, certainly. And it comes with expected contracts for every player. This really helps when determining who may fit where and for how much (likely).
Onto the blueprints: PLEASE NOTE that I started this review one day and then paused a few days to finish it. In the meantime, the Twins fired Bill Smith and named Terry Ryan interim GM. And then there was the $100 million payroll disclosure, which is probably the bottom end of some range with the top at $110 million. This actually does not seriously affect the blueprints all that much, though.
I have to say that Parker Hageman's blueprint seems vastly superior to the others. Nick Nelson's is my next favorite because it opens up more possibilities for ad hoc trades mid-season next year (and is the closest to that $100 million figure). I like the general idea of letting Kubel and Cuddyer both leave, unless Kubel would be willing to accept arbitration or a two-year deal. I predict right now that Cuddyer ends up in Philadelphia which will really overpay him a great deal, and Kubel ends up in Boston or Texas (and he will be good in both places). Signing Joe Nathan is something I like, but if payroll is set to decrease it is going to be either losing Nathan or not signing a David DeJesus or Derrek Lee, at the very least. I like almost everything about Parker's blueprint. Colby Lewis would be a great idea, but if C.J. Wilson leaves the Rangers, there is no way the Rangers are trading Lewis away. I don't know if trading Slowey and X prospect for Ianetta is really better than just signing Barajas and trading Slowey for Wigginton, but Parker's blueprint excels in his good use of 4 or 4-5 million bucks here and there (Octavio Dotel, David DeJesus, Clint Barmes, and Derrek Lee--one of my all-time favorite players), and then dropping down in the 1-2 million range (Wuertz and Nix).
Finally, the "what are you working on this offseason?" Player Development section is a great look into players at various levels, but this section would be better early in the Handbook. A small and minor quibble for an intriguing glimpse into things. I really would like to hear for Miguel Sano, Eddie Rosario, and Oswaldo Arcia though!
All in all, this is a wonderful must-read for Twins fans. These guys are fantastic and they produce something that may be unheard of for other MLB teams (I don't know how many other teams have bloggers writing about them at this level). I will share my blueprint in the next post.
Onto the blueprints: PLEASE NOTE that I started this review one day and then paused a few days to finish it. In the meantime, the Twins fired Bill Smith and named Terry Ryan interim GM. And then there was the $100 million payroll disclosure, which is probably the bottom end of some range with the top at $110 million. This actually does not seriously affect the blueprints all that much, though.
I have to say that Parker Hageman's blueprint seems vastly superior to the others. Nick Nelson's is my next favorite because it opens up more possibilities for ad hoc trades mid-season next year (and is the closest to that $100 million figure). I like the general idea of letting Kubel and Cuddyer both leave, unless Kubel would be willing to accept arbitration or a two-year deal. I predict right now that Cuddyer ends up in Philadelphia which will really overpay him a great deal, and Kubel ends up in Boston or Texas (and he will be good in both places). Signing Joe Nathan is something I like, but if payroll is set to decrease it is going to be either losing Nathan or not signing a David DeJesus or Derrek Lee, at the very least. I like almost everything about Parker's blueprint. Colby Lewis would be a great idea, but if C.J. Wilson leaves the Rangers, there is no way the Rangers are trading Lewis away. I don't know if trading Slowey and X prospect for Ianetta is really better than just signing Barajas and trading Slowey for Wigginton, but Parker's blueprint excels in his good use of 4 or 4-5 million bucks here and there (Octavio Dotel, David DeJesus, Clint Barmes, and Derrek Lee--one of my all-time favorite players), and then dropping down in the 1-2 million range (Wuertz and Nix).
Finally, the "what are you working on this offseason?" Player Development section is a great look into players at various levels, but this section would be better early in the Handbook. A small and minor quibble for an intriguing glimpse into things. I really would like to hear for Miguel Sano, Eddie Rosario, and Oswaldo Arcia though!
All in all, this is a wonderful must-read for Twins fans. These guys are fantastic and they produce something that may be unheard of for other MLB teams (I don't know how many other teams have bloggers writing about them at this level). I will share my blueprint in the next post.
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